It has not been an easy 12 months for Brazil’s corporate sector, which faces a multitude of challenges, both internal and external. Bolsonaro’s victory in the elections, though divisive, at least provided some reprieve from the political uncertainty that has weighed on Brazil’s markets in the run up to the vote. Still, many questions remain around the direction of policy, and the new government’s ability to push it through congress, as well as broader shifts in the macro-economic environment.
Bonds & Loans spoke to Felipe Bomfim, Director at Patria Infrastructure, on pensions reform, festering growth of local capital markets and why the glass is always half-full for investors doing business in Brazil.
The current fragile state of Brazil’s economy carries high risks. This time around, there are no buffers, because the unemployment rate is already at record highs. A recession now would entail social costs much greater than those of 2015, warns XPI's Zeina Latif.
While borrowers in Brazil were confronted with anaemic growth and a lack of political direction through much of last year, many still pursued innovative new funding strategies that took them into the domestic and international credit markets. We take a closer look at some of the transactions originating from the region that won top prize at this year’s Bonds & Loans Latin America Awards.
A good way to evaluate the beginning of Bolsonaro’s government, in terms of economics, is to establish the degree of continuity with the previous government's agenda. In October, I argued that, in spite of the political renewal, it would be essential to continue the economic reforms initiated by Michel Temer. In this respect, there is both good and bad news.
As key reforms progress through the various arteries of Brazil’s governments, most investors and lenders remain resolutely optimistic about the market’s prospects – few more than HSBC, which recently announced its intention to significantly expand its presence in the country and re-establish itself as one of its top international banks.
President Bolsonaro loses focus all too easily. Instead of discussing public policies to promote growth and tackle high unemployment, he again criticized IBGE’s methodology for determining the unemployment rate. He says that these numbers serve "to deceive the populace," thus implying that the situation is better than the data indicated.
Latin American borrowers continue to see strong demand from lenders and investors following a hectic year of elections in many of the region’s largest economies. We speak with Mauricio Voorduin, Managing Director, Latin America Regional Head; David Costa, Managing Director, Head of Latin America Finance; Sara Pirzada, Managing Director, Loan Syndications; and Mark Tuttle, Managing Director, DCM at Mizuho Securities, a regional funding leader, about some of the key trends prevalent in the region’s markets throughout the first quarter of this year, and why it’s never been a better time of borrowers to move into the dollar markets.
The recent nosedive in the government’s approval ratings indicates at least one thing quite clearly: Bolsonaro’s honeymoon period is over, writes Zeina Latif.
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12 Jul 2019