Brazil

18 Apr 2017   Americas, Macro, Policy, Brazil

Brazil: More Taxes in Sight?

Well-balanced public accounts are the basis of a sound economy, by impeding explosive growth of the public debt and its financing through inflation. The government’s budget shortfall threatens this equilibrium.

Social Unrest in Latin America: Back to the Old Ways?

As political chaos erupted this week in multiple South American countries, investors must now decide if Latin American sovereigns are still worth the risk.

Brazil: We Want to Work

Although the fiscal crisis is a major cause of Brazil’s recession, by generating higher inflation and feeding fears of a debt default, distortions of the economic system, such as the malfunctioning labor market, greatly aggravated the economic crisis. This is precisely what affects peoples’ lives the most, and can hamper the pace of economic recovery and define the political scenario in 2018.

In Brazil, Start-Ups Go Toe-to-Toe with Banks on Credit

As Fintech start-ups bloom in Brazil, authorities are faced with the challenge of regulating these new companies, in a way that proves to be safe for clients and without hampering their growth.

Interest Rates in Brazil: If Only It Were That Easy

The concern over high interest rates in Brazil is understandable. It impacts the public coffers in favour of the richest and discourages productive investment. Many analysts argue that the interest rate is too high, and that the main reason for its inaction is pressure from special interest groups, notably the financial market. Although this argument is seductive for its simplicity, it does not jibe with the complexity of the theme.

Odebrecht Could Lead to Stronger Corporate Governance in Latin America

The Odebrecht scandal could be a game changer for corporate governance in Latin America, with investors demanding more transparency in the way the region does business.

Time for Caution on Inflation in Brazil

Inflation targets are widely used by Central Banks throughout the world. In countries with moderate inflation, this regime helps keep inflation well behaved, with less cost to economic activity. In countries with low inflation, the risk of deflation can be mitigated by setting a suitable target. This targeting also makes monetary policy more predictable, contributing to a stable economic environment, but defining an ideal target is an imperfect science at best.

Between the Spread: Market Intervention and its Side Effects in Brazil

Market failures exist, and they require government intervention. But many distortions in the economic system are not necessarily the result of market failures. Often, they are born of mistaken government action, which then weigh heavily on economic activity. A good example in Brazil: banks.

A Closer Look: Pension Reform in Brazil

Brazil’s population is aging and its retirement rules have become unsustainable. Everyone will have to work longer or retirement income will be impaired. Brazil is a relative slowpoke in its social security reform agenda, but the country is moving in the right direction.

The Worst Has Passed for Brazil’s Credit Cycle

Latin America Structured Finance Advisors, in conjunction with our partners in Brazil, used analysis of the buckets for aging bad loans to verify the findings of the rating agencies with an analysis of bad loans in 49 credit portfolios of Brazilian ABS. We found that most of the bad loans have reached 180 days past due and the percentage of delinquent loans in the earliest aging buckets have fallen below pre-2015 levels. This supports our view that Brazil’s credit crisis has peaked.

 

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