Brazil’s current account balance came in at a surplus of USD435mn in June, below the USD1.3bn surplus registered in the same month last year.
Economic data has taken a turn for the worse in Brazil following a nationwide truckers’ strike in May and early June that crippled economic activity. Industrial production recorded the largest contraction in almost 10 years in May, and the manufacturing PMI plunged into contractionary territory in June.
The desired renovation in politics is not for now. Partly because the electoral rules act to reinforce the competitiveness of the big parties and politicians now in office. A trajectory like that of Macron in France would face many difficulties in Brazil.
There is no way to know for sure what shape the country would be in if Dilma were still president. An abyss would be a fitting image. Fending off the risk of a more prolonged crisis was an important conquest, and despite the still fragile economic situation, confidence, bit by bit, improves.
Despite Finance Ministry’s efforts to clean up public accounts and reduce fiscal risk in the future, the strategy for fiscal adjustment, as with the spending cap, has been gradual. As a consequence, one could not discard the risk of creeping insolvency, which could threaten the recently secured economic stability.
Although the pause in the cuts has come ahead of expectations, the basic interest rate hit an unprecedented level and, this time, it is here to stay. Even if some part of the monetary loosening is temporary, likely to revert when inflation is converging to its goal, there is a good chance of the Selic rate not coming back up to two digits. A key condition for that is the approval of Social Security reform that fends off the risks of public debt insolvency.
With consumer confidence once again on the rise in Brazil, Daniel Levy, CFO of Arezzo & Co. is optimistic about the company’s fortunes as the shoemaker looks to expand its footprint both within the country and abroad. We speak with Levy about the funding team’s core objectives and the company’s expansion efforts.
Brazil is still a teenager when it comes to the functioning of democratic institutions: a country that seeks a path to civility, but not without stumbling first.
Latin American miner Nexa Resources – which recently rebranded from Votorantim Metais – has in the past year completed its dual stock exchange listing, weathered a period of low commodity prices and mining sector strikes in Latin America, and maintained strong fundamentals to step confidently into the new financial year. We speak with Mario Bertoncini, the company’s Senior VP and CFO, about its prospects in 2018.
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