A good way to evaluate the beginning of Bolsonaro’s government, in terms of economics, is to establish the degree of continuity with the previous government's agenda. In October, I argued that, in spite of the political renewal, it would be essential to continue the economic reforms initiated by Michel Temer. In this respect, there is both good and bad news.
As key reforms progress through the various arteries of Brazil’s governments, most investors and lenders remain resolutely optimistic about the market’s prospects – few more than HSBC, which recently announced its intention to significantly expand its presence in the country and re-establish itself as one of its top international banks.
President Bolsonaro loses focus all too easily. Instead of discussing public policies to promote growth and tackle high unemployment, he again criticized IBGE’s methodology for determining the unemployment rate. He says that these numbers serve "to deceive the populace," thus implying that the situation is better than the data indicated.
Latin American borrowers continue to see strong demand from lenders and investors following a hectic year of elections in many of the region’s largest economies. We speak with Mauricio Voorduin, Managing Director, Latin America Regional Head; David Costa, Managing Director, Head of Latin America Finance; Sara Pirzada, Managing Director, Loan Syndications; and Mark Tuttle, Managing Director, DCM at Mizuho Securities, a regional funding leader, about some of the key trends prevalent in the region’s markets throughout the first quarter of this year, and why it’s never been a better time of borrowers to move into the dollar markets.
The recent nosedive in the government’s approval ratings indicates at least one thing quite clearly: Bolsonaro’s honeymoon period is over, writes Zeina Latif.
In elections last year, voters in both Brazil and Mexico opted overwhelmingly for populist candidates. To be sure, Latin American populism takes many shapes. In Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s version (AMLO) promised significantly higher spending on social programmes and infrastructure. Brazil’s new President, Jair Bolsonaro, has pledged assertive efforts to clamp down on crime and boost security. While they may not share the same visions of prosperity or the means by which they are attained, the two leaders do share challenges, writes Brian Mullaney, Strategist, Global MacroViews.
As Bolsonaro nears three months in office, problems are beginning to pile up, but some bright spots in the economy provide a silver lining, suggests Barings Investment's Emerson de Pieri in his analysis.
As the new government's agenda begins to take shape, Bolsonaro and Co may be better positioned than his predecessor to push through much needed reforms. But will he succeed? XPI economist Zeina Latif provides her take.
On the back of a research trip to Brazil and conversations with bankers, law firms and investors operating in the country, Bonds & Loans offers a roundup of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats influencing the investment and debt capital markets climate in the country.
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15 May 2019