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23 Jul 2018   Global, Macro, Currencies, Policy

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX saw some violent swings last week, due in large part to some unhelpful official comments. BRL and TRY were the best performers last week, while RUB and CLP were the worst. When all is said and done, however, we think Fed policy remains unaffected and so we remain negative on EM FX. Also, global trade tensions remain high after Trump threatened tariffs on all Chinese imports entering the US.

The Coming US Recession Triggers: What You Need to Know

There are many potential triggers or combination of triggers that investors monitor – increasingly now given where we are in the current cycle – to try to predict when the next recession will arrive. It is hard to pinpoint specific causes historically aside, perhaps, from catastrophic policy (fiscal or monetary) mistakes or unanticipated global economic shocks. The reality is that many of the potential triggers themselves are inter-related and can result from a recession rather than indicate that a recession is imminent.

Corporate Borrowers in India: Stuck Between a Thin Bond Market and Tightening Banks

Corporate borrowing in India is set to get a lot more challenging as investors search for higher coupons and banks tighten up their lending practices following a build-up of non-performing loans, according to analysts. It is unclear whether even the country’s largest corporates are immune to the sandwiching of rising interest rates and a banking sector in flux.

Nigeria SWOT Analysis: Rising Oil and Election Jitters Paint Mixed Picture

Bonds & Loans team arrived on the ground in Nigeria to meet with a broad range of local finance leaders in order to get a sense of the risks and opportunities on the horizon.

Juan Pablo Newman on Mexico’s Elections, Peso’s Resilience and Samurai Bonds

As Mexico continues to show resilience in the face of multiple external challenges, including stalemate in the NAFTA negotiations, pressure on the EM currencies from a rallying dollar and global trade wars, its debt capital markets have largely switched into a wait-and-see mode. But issuance windows offer plenty of opportunities, so we speak to Juan Pablo Newman, the Head of Public Credit at the Ministry of Finance, about DCM prospects and a broader outlook for the country’s issuers and borrowers.

Central Banks, Sovereign Investors Change Tack on Investing in EM

Sovereign assets and central bank reserves are increasingly finding their way into alternatives and emerging market assets in a bid to boost returns, according to an Invesco survey of 126 sovereign funds and 65 central banks that sheds light on how asset allocations have shifted in recent years.

Turkey’s Post-Election Challenge: Keeping Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Sync

With a landmark national election in Turkey now having come to pass, we speak with Naz Masraff, Director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a leading political risk consultancy, about the policy mix needed to lift the country out of a tough economic situation.

EM Bond Outlook: Better 2H 2018 Expected

It has been a tough start to the year for emerging market bonds, but things are looking up as we head into 2H 2018 – you just need to know where to look.

CASE STUDY: Dubai Aerospace Gets Lift-Off on USD480mn Dual-Tranche Murabaha RCF

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) has signed a landmark unsecured four-year dual-tranche revolving credit facility with an initial commitment of USD480mn and an accordion feature that allows the facility to be increased to up to USD800mn. The deal was one of the largest conventional/Islamic transactions in the region.

Brazil: Lessons from the Dollar

Which way will the dollar go? Economists don’t have sufficiently robust instruments to answer that question.

 

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