Russia & CIS

13 Feb 2017   Russia & CIS, Macro, Policy

Belarus Stuck Between Russia and a Hard Place as Recession Escalates

As Belarus’ economic woes intensify, the annual bargaining with Russia over gas price threatens to escalate tensions and potentially undermine the Eastern European country’s economy.

Mixed Signals from the US and Europe Keep Russia in Sanctions Limbo

Lack of unity on the US government’s future policy towards Russia, coupled with similar divisions growing in the EU, complicate Russian risk and leave an air of uncertainty hanging over increasingly attractive Russian credit.

Doubts Cast Over Rosneft Deal as Banco Intesa Denies Funding Role

The Russian oil giant’s initial announcement of a privatization deal involving Swiss oil giant Glencore and the Qatari Investment Authority was deemed a huge success for CEO Igor Sechin and the Kremlin. But contradictory statements that followed from various participants in the deal and the generally opaque nature of the transaction left behind a lot of loose threads.

Volatility Subsides but Hedging Products Still on the Menu in Russia

Peering two years back in time, the Russian economy today is barely recognisable. As the recession eases and volatility subsides the fortunes of the country’s corporates continue to improve, and the country’s banks look to new avenues to boost profits and keep margins at attractive levels

Ukraine’s “Too Big To Fail” PrivatBank Nationalized, Beckoning Bail-In Questions

Ukraine’s largest lender PrivatBank is to be taken over by the government as liquidity woes threaten client savings. Among other things, the move raises questions about implementation of the Basel III bail-in measures embedded in the bank’s securities.

CASE STUDY: Gazprom Goes Low with €1bn 7-Year Eurobond

Russian oil producer Gazprom managed to price its €1bn 7-year trade through its secondary curve and secure the lowest coupon on any Russian corporate Eurobond placed in either euros or US dollars to date.

Rosneft Quick to Close Books on RUB600bn Bond as Privatization Looms

Books on the deal closed within half an hour, with no prior announcements about the sale, its organizer or pricing, with the company only stating the 10-year note carried a 10.1% coupon. While it is generally seen as a “closed market” issuance by investors, the bond sale dispels some of the uncertainty in the markets regarding the planned privatization of Rosneft.

Urals Traded on SPIMEX as Russia Seeks “Fairer” Price

As Russia finally launches its very own “oil market” – the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange – market observers are still sceptical about its potential to attract traders to rouble-denominated contracts.

As Rosneft Agrees US$16bn Bond Programme, Memories of 2014 Deal Rehashed

The Russian oil giant hopes to tap the local markets with 10-year bonds, with proceeds going towards refinancing old debt and foreign ventures as it continues to ramp up production. But one can’t help get a sense of déjà vu.

Russian Bonds Remain Resilient on Corruption-Related Events

Russia’s Economy Minister has been accused of demanding a US$2mn bribe from Rosneft to facilitate the privatisation of another state oil company, Bashneft, in what is building up to be one of the highest-profile corruption cases in modern Russian history. Despite this, investors are unlikely to be put off Russian assets due to their recent strong performance.

 

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