CEE & Turkey
The Central Bank of Turkey recently published its financial stability report and it tells us a lot about the economic risks and opportunities moving forward more broadly. Manulife analyst Richard Segal provides a digest of the report and assesses the implications for Turkey’s economy.
With a landmark national election in Turkey now having come to pass, we speak with Naz Masraff, Director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a leading political risk consultancy, about the policy mix needed to lift the country out of a tough economic situation.
It has been a tough start to the year for emerging market bonds, but things are looking up as we head into 2H 2018 – you just need to know where to look.
Turkey has been making headlines over the last six months, rarely for enviable reasons – a large current account deficit, low interest rates and wobbly fundamentals culminated in the lira becoming the second cheapest EM currency in mid-May. Following the snap elections called last month, Bonds & Loans headed to Istanbul to look beyond the headlines and get some perspective from issuers and investors.
Following up on its recent “double bill” international bond, the former Soviet republic hit the market again at a tough time, but the notes proved popular with international investors and saw some of the highest oversubscription levels in the sovereign space over the past year.
As Turkey's Central Bank finally responds to the plight of Turkish lira with a 300bp overnight rate hike, Renaissance Capital's global chief economist Charlie Robertson looks back at how the country got itself into this pickle - and some of the possible solutions that could boost the economy.
With a weakened currency and political volatility riding high, some analysts are concerned about the growing likelihood of a hard landing in Turkey – ever more with the backdrop being a strengthening dollar and US monetary policy normalisation. We speak with Albaraka Turk Chief Treasury and Investment Officer Malek Temsah about the country’s economy and the banking sector.
Just a few years ago, barely any debt capital markets investors would have paid much attention to regions like Central Asia and the CIS. Yet with overwhelming demand for sovereign notes issued by the likes of Belarus and Tajikistan, regular issues from Kazakhstan and a highly anticipated debut Eurobond from Uzbekistan, the region is putting itself on the EM fixed income map.
Albaraka Turk extended its reputation as a pioneer in the sukuk market last month, issuing the country’s first Basel III-compliant Additional Tier 1 capital notes – in a Sharia-compliant privately placed, publicly listed format, no less.
After a traumatic few years catalysed by the annexation of Crimea and the ensuing civil conflict with its easternmost regions, Ukraine has developed a certain degree of flexibility in managing a series of shocks encountered since. But a lack of progress on crucial reforms, political mismanagement, and consistent lack of access to credit for key sectors like agriculture threaten the progress achieved so far.
- Bonds & Loans Turkey Awards: Winners in 2018
- Brown Brothers Harriman: Frontier Sovereign Rating Model for Q1 2018
- Russia, CIS, Europe & Turkey Credit Markets Brief: 02 November – 16 November
- Russia, CIS, Europe & Turkey Credit Markets Brief: 19 October- 02 November
- Turkey’s 2018 Funding & Liquidity Agenda