CEE & Turkey
Turkey has been making headlines over the last six months, rarely for enviable reasons – a large current account deficit, low interest rates and wobbly fundamentals culminated in the lira becoming the second cheapest EM currency in mid-May. Following the snap elections called last month, Bonds & Loans headed to Istanbul to look beyond the headlines and get some perspective from issuers and investors.
Following up on its recent “double bill” international bond, the former Soviet republic hit the market again at a tough time, but the notes proved popular with international investors and saw some of the highest oversubscription levels in the sovereign space over the past year.
As Turkey's Central Bank finally responds to the plight of Turkish lira with a 300bp overnight rate hike, Renaissance Capital's global chief economist Charlie Robertson looks back at how the country got itself into this pickle - and some of the possible solutions that could boost the economy.
With a weakened currency and political volatility riding high, some analysts are concerned about the growing likelihood of a hard landing in Turkey – ever more with the backdrop being a strengthening dollar and US monetary policy normalisation. We speak with Albaraka Turk Chief Treasury and Investment Officer Malek Temsah about the country’s economy and the banking sector.
Just a few years ago, barely any debt capital markets investors would have paid much attention to regions like Central Asia and the CIS. Yet with overwhelming demand for sovereign notes issued by the likes of Belarus and Tajikistan, regular issues from Kazakhstan and a highly anticipated debut Eurobond from Uzbekistan, the region is putting itself on the EM fixed income map.
Albaraka Turk extended its reputation as a pioneer in the sukuk market last month, issuing the country’s first Basel III-compliant Additional Tier 1 capital notes – in a Sharia-compliant privately placed, publicly listed format, no less.
After a traumatic few years catalysed by the annexation of Crimea and the ensuing civil conflict with its easternmost regions, Ukraine has developed a certain degree of flexibility in managing a series of shocks encountered since. But a lack of progress on crucial reforms, political mismanagement, and consistent lack of access to credit for key sectors like agriculture threaten the progress achieved so far.
Despite a conspicuous rise in tensions between Turkey and some of its closest neighbours and allies, the country finished 2017 as one of the fastest growing economies in the world – thanks in part to an unprecedented fiscal stimulus that helped among other things stoke the continued deepening of the capital markets. Against that backdrop, a number of leading issuers and borrowers once again set new benchmarks in the credit markets for 2018, securing a number of ‘firsts’ while making the market more robust.
Brown Brothers Harriman: produced the following ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk in Frontier Markets. A country’s score directly reflects its creditworthiness and underlying ability to service its external debt obligations.
Petropavlovsk sold USD500mn of fresh debt –– PSB gets downgraded – Rosneft’s shares take a hit due to Venezuelan crisis – Venezuela and Russia agree on debt restructuring –ABLV placed USD40mn of unsubordinated notes – Belarus to issue USD600mn next year – The government to support Turkey’s export sector
- Russia, CIS, Europe & Turkey Credit Markets Brief: 19 October- 02 November
- Turkey’s 2018 Funding & Liquidity Agenda
- Halkbank Deputy CEO Hakan Eryilmaz on The Lending Outlook in Turkey
- Russia, CIS, Europe & Turkey Credit Markets Brief: 05 October- 19 October
- Russia, CIS, Europe & Turkey Credit Markets Brief: 21 September- 5 October
15 Jun 2018