Call us on
Submit your deal

Global

20 May 2019   Investor Insights, Macro, Policy, Global

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM remains hostage to global trade tensions. Last week’s moves by the US to with regards to Japan, EU, Canada, and Mexico should only be viewed as a change in tactics. China is now the sole focus, but these other trade skirmishes are likely to flare again. We remain negative on EM within this environment.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a firm note on optimism that a trade deal will be reached. We think that optimism is misplaced and so look for EM weakness to resume this week. Indeed, rhetoric from both sides over the weekend suggest things will get worse before they get better.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX was whipsawed last week by conflicting Fed views and softer than expected US weekly earnings. We continue to believe that the bar is set very high for a rate cut this year, and that markets have not adjusted accordingly yet. The divergence theme that favors the dollar should come back to the forefront as RBA, RBNZ, and Norges Bank are all likely to deliver dovish holds. Indeed, there are significant risks of rate cuts by the Antipodeans.

Fifty Shades of Green: How are Banks and Investors Approaching ESG?

The world isn’t the only thing heating up. As issues of governance and climate change continue to dominate headlines, financial institutions are facing growing pressure from governments and public opinion alike to integrate Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) considerations into day-to-day operations – in everything from how they lend or invest to how they run their operational facilities.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

The dollar was firmer against the majors but softer against EM FX last week. This divergence is unlikely to last. Which is giving the true signal? We believe the broad-based dollar rally remains intact due to our constructive view on the US economy. As such, we expect EM FX to resume weakening in the coming days.

China-US Tensions, War with Iran Dominate Medium-Term GCC Risk Landscape

Despite a positive macro outlook, a blend of rapidly rising regional tensions and an evolving trade dispute between China and the US will weigh more heavily than previously thought on the GCC’s economic prospects in the medium term, argues Dr. Nasser Saidi, Founder and President of Nasser Saidi & Associates and Lebanon’s former Minister of Economy.

Eurasia Group: US-China Spat Could Weigh on GCC

Strategically positioned between the US and Asia, the GCC relies heavily on governments and markets in both regions for policy support, investment, and commodities demand. As China and the US double down on opposing trade positions in their pursuit of global economic hegemony, the GCC risks getting caught in the crossfire, according to Ayham Kamel, Practice Head for MENA at Eurasia Group.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM got hit hard last week by risk-off sentiment that picked up in the wake of the FOMC meeting. Like the recent ECB decision, markets are rightfully focusing on the global growth implications of the dovish central banks rather than the liquidity implications. The US yield curve briefly inverted last week. If sustained, it would signal a likely US recession in the next 6-24 months. This is hardly conducive to risk and EM assets, which we see remaining under pressure this week.

BBH: EM Sovereign Rating Model for Q2 2019

Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) have produced the following Emerging Markets (EM) ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended a good week on a strong note, with virtually every currency up against the greenback. The FOMC is likely to send a very dovish message to the markets this week. While this should help EM gain, we note that risk assets generally did not do well after the January FOMC and March ECB meetings. We think that global growth concerns will become more of an issue in the coming days.

 

More Articles

 

Subscribe