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11 Jun 2018   Global, Currencies, Policy

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point.

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Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a weak note, and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.

Off the Record: Issuers, Investors Upbeat on Sovereign Sukuk Prospects

Participants at an exclusive Sovereign Sukuk Roundtable hosted by Bonds & Loans and Emirates NBD Capital were upbeat about the benefits sukuk bring for both borrowers and investors, but concerns around thin liquidity, a lack of standards, and regulatory uncertainty have prompted difficult questions about the outlook for the asset class.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain under pressure.

A Disturbance in the Force: Institutional Frameworks and Vigilantism

The common denominator linking the US Trade War with China, sanctions against Russia and the attacks on Syria was that there were no attempts made to find solutions to these conflicts within multilateral institutions, such as the UN and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The word used to describe the act of seeking justice outside the formal framework of the law is vigilantism. Vigilantism leads to abuses of power, miscarriages of justice and insecurity. The descent into vigilantism will make the world a less safe place.

Green Bonds Move Forward – But Same Old Questions Persist Unanswered

Global green bond issuance surged to record levels in 2017 with more than USD155bn issued globally, but despite a 78% increase in issuance volumes and the development of innovative new products, analysts contend the market’s growth remains hamstrung by the same old issues as they wait for green’s watershed moment.

 

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