Policy

21 Feb 2017   Macro, Policy, Global, Mexico

Protectionism and the Market Repercussions

As populist politicians and leaders rise to prominence in the developed world, anti-globalist attitudes and protectionism are also entering the economic frame. With Trump casting doubts over the future of NAFTA and Brexit putting a strain on EU's economic integration, Richard Segal, Senior Analyst at Manulife Asset Management, considers some of the practical effects these policies may bring in the coming years.

Andean Markets: Banking Sector Outlook for 2017

With stable GDP growth, strong demographics and a flurry of infrastructure programmes under way in the Andes, the region’s banking sector needs to provide the financial backbone for further development of some of the most flourishing economies in the EM space – that is, if the banks are able to steer clear of the pitfalls: corruption scandals, market volatility, and a potential global trade overhaul.

Basel III Could Drive Banking Sector Credit Rush in South Africa

With about ZAR72bn in senior unsecured bank debt maturing in 2017 and new Basel III requirements being phased in January 2018, analysts are forecasting an uptick in senior and subordinated issuance in South Africa through 2017 – a welcome change from relatively subdued volumes seen last year.

Colombia’s Central Bank Chief Vows to Aim for Inflation Target Despite Headwinds

Juan Jose Echavarria, the new Governor of Colombia’s Central Bank, has come into the job at a time of uncertainty for global markets. With inflationary pressures simmering, countered by the need to boost growth through tightening, Bonds & Loans asked the country’s top banker about the legacy he has inherited and how the Bank plans to navigate the challenging economic landscape ahead.

India’s Bond Market Could Dominate EMs in 2017

India’s efforts to curtail the shadow economy and go cashless, coupled with fresh measures introduced by the country’s securities regulator and contained within the latest government budget, are likely to give a big boost to India’s bond market in 2017 despite a number of headwinds that could continue to challenge emerging markets. The development of a viable secondary market could be within reach.

Belarus Stuck Between Russia and a Hard Place as Recession Escalates

As Belarus’ economic woes intensify, the annual bargaining with Russia over gas price threatens to escalate tensions and potentially undermine the Eastern European country’s economy.

The Rating Agencies and Brazilian Society

Brazil’s economic team has set itself the goal of reclaiming Brazil’s investment grade rating. Some believe, however, that the government should not give so much importance to the rating agencies. After all, they failed to predict the global crisis of the previous decade.

Mexico, US: Is a Mexican Standoff Inevitable?

The notion that no party can walk away from the current Mexico-US confrontation unscathed is quickly gaining prominence among investors, issuers and observers. While investors are starting to move out of their short Mexican positions, analysts are split on what effect a Trump presidency, impending 2018 elections, and a new Central Bank governor will have on the country’s medium term prospects.

Is China's Real Estate Market Headed for ‘Overleverage’ Territory?

The real estate sector in China is set to cool off in 2017 after the Chinese government enacted a series of measures to prevent a bubble following skyrocketing housing prices seen over the past two years.

The Road to Relief in Brazil

The government is making efforts to correct past economic mistakes and advance the reforms, seeking to stabilize the macroeconomic environment. For some observers, the strategy is just another mistake, while for others it is insufficient, since a healthy macroeconomic environment does not guarantee sustained growth. But it is the foundation. We may be surprised by the results of efforts to stabilise the economy.

 

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