Scores and rankings of ESG – shorthand for environment, social and governance – factors has become supremely important for investors looking to funnel capital towards more sustainable activities, often on the basis that better ESG means more sustainable cashflow generation capacity and lower overall risk. But are there limits to the linkages that can be drawn between credit performance and ESG rankings?
EM remains hostage to global trade tensions. Last week’s moves by the US to with regards to Japan, EU, Canada, and Mexico should only be viewed as a change in tactics. China is now the sole focus, but these other trade skirmishes are likely to flare again. We remain negative on EM within this environment.
With further bond index inclusion on the horizon and oil prices holding steady, CFOs and Treasurers are optimistic about the GCC region’s credit market prospects. But the accelerated pace at which today’s markets are evolving is reducing long-term visibility and raising questions over the kind of macro and monetary policy environment borrowers and investors are likely to find themselves in going forward, according to fundraising specialists who participated with an exclusive CFO roundtable co-hosted by HSBC and Bonds & Loans in Dubai.
EM FX ended last week on a firm note on optimism that a trade deal will be reached. We think that optimism is misplaced and so look for EM weakness to resume this week. Indeed, rhetoric from both sides over the weekend suggest things will get worse before they get better.
The government intends to foster growth of the local debt capital markets by hoovering up as much as HUF300bn worth of corporate bonds, but how the Central Bank’s recent hawkish signals and intent to load up the balance sheet squares with those plans is raising questions among investors.
A good way to evaluate the beginning of Bolsonaro’s government, in terms of economics, is to establish the degree of continuity with the previous government's agenda. In October, I argued that, in spite of the political renewal, it would be essential to continue the economic reforms initiated by Michel Temer. In this respect, there is both good and bad news.
As key reforms progress through the various arteries of Brazil’s governments, most investors and lenders remain resolutely optimistic about the market’s prospects – few more than HSBC, which recently announced its intention to significantly expand its presence in the country and re-establish itself as one of its top international banks.
EM FX was whipsawed last week by conflicting Fed views and softer than expected US weekly earnings. We continue to believe that the bar is set very high for a rate cut this year, and that markets have not adjusted accordingly yet. The divergence theme that favors the dollar should come back to the forefront as RBA, RBNZ, and Norges Bank are all likely to deliver dovish holds. Indeed, there are significant risks of rate cuts by the Antipodeans.
Asian investors are being sought as natural candidates for a revival of foreign investment in Turkey, according to CFOs, bankers and investors who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent research trip to Istanbul. Whether investors in the Far East oblige is another question entirely.
- Brazil: Lack of Focus or Lack of Interest?
- Ashmore Group: Beware of Big Fiscal
- Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
- Ethiopia: The Next African Frontier?
- Brazil: Gravity Already Pulling Down Bolsonaro’s Ratings
15 May 2019