The Russian Central Bank tentatively confirmed that the banking sector is experiencing a dollar liquidity deficit. In an apparent push to de-dollarize the economy, it may for now resist from intervening, hoping to encourage more local currency borrowing. But inaction could pile additional pressure on the rouble in coming months.
How is the current macro environment – rising interest rates, a global escalating trade war, and elevated regional sovereign debt – influencing East African markets? John Lentaigne, Chief Underwriting Officer at African Trade Insurance Agency, speaks with Bonds & Loans about the economic outlook in some of the region’s largest economies.
Eskom, South Africa’s scandal-plagued state-owned power utility, has embarked on an ambitious overhaul of its balance sheet, governance structure and approach to the markets as it looks to overcome allegations of corruption and mismanagement. Analysts are split on whether it will be enough.
As the debt capital markets continues to deepen in Nigeria and the fundamentals continue to stabilize, upcoming elections and simmering security threats look set to test investor and borrower conviction.
EM FX has come under pressure again due to ongoing trade tensions and rising US rates, but saw some modest relief Friday after the PBOC announcement on FX forwards. This helped EM FX stabilize, but we do not think the negative fundamental backdrop has changed. Best performers last week were MXN, PHP, and PEN while the worst were TRY, ZAR, and KRW.
About a year has passed since the UK FCA’s Chief Executive Andrew Bailey set the deadline for the financial markets’ transition away from LIBOR, upon which roughly USD350tn in securities, loans and derivatives across five major currencies is contracted. Finding an alternative that can satisfy the diversity of markets that rest upon this crucial benchmark is proving to be more elusive than anticipated, beckoning questions about the pace and scale of transition.
As East African borrowers' access to dollar liquidity, plentiful in the 00s and early 10s, becomes more limited amid central bank tightening across the developed world, infrastructure development looks set to become the new driver for the local debt capital markets in the region. We explore the shift to private markets and potential for new financing instruments in Part 2 of our story.
EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar. Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP. BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX.
The Central Bank of Turkey recently published its financial stability report and it tells us a lot about the economic risks and opportunities moving forward more broadly. Manulife analyst Richard Segal provides a digest of the report and assesses the implications for Turkey’s economy.
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