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Policy

15 Jun 2018   Macro, Policy, Americas, Brazil

Brazil: The Kids Aren’t Alright

Despite Finance Ministry’s efforts to clean up public accounts and reduce fiscal risk in the future, the strategy for fiscal adjustment, as with the spending cap, has been gradual. As a consequence, one could not discard the risk of creeping insolvency, which could threaten the recently secured economic stability.

Reforms Amplify Uncertainty in Saudi Arabia’s Real Estate Sector

Saudi Arabia’s grand ambitions to create new large-scale residential, industrial, “shoppertainment” and other mixed-use developments could be a boon for the country’s – indeed the region’s – real estate developers, investors and financiers. But the sector’s potential has never looked so mixed.

Sanctions Unsanctioned: Russia Becomes EM’s Riskiest Safe Haven

By late 2017, to the surprise of naysayers, the Russian economy appeared to have successfully navigated a challenging sanctions-riddled period and by Q1 2018 was looking to be one of the better EM stories on the market. But the latest escalation in tensions with Washington, along with broader EM outflows, have seen the country’s issuance pipeline dry up even as economic fundamentals remain strong, especially relative to the struggling peers like Turkey and Argentina.

Bank of Singapore's Todd Schubert on GCC Credits and Fiscal Reform Effort

Todd Schubert, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research at Bank of Singapore sat down with us at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk 2018 conference in Dubai to talk about GCC credits from both relative value and absolute perspectives, and assess the success of key fiscal reform efforts undertaken in the region.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point.

Portfolio Manager: Blockchain will help DCM issuers, investors but middlemen could be wiped out

Disruptive new technologies such as cryptocurrencies and distributed-ledger technologies like blockchain are slowly penetrating the banking sector and debt capital markets, creating opportunities – and raising risks – for the traditional stakeholders.

VIDEO: Martin Egan at BNP Paribas Talks GCC DCM Pipeline, Oil and Geopolitics, and LIBOR

Martin Egan, Vice Chairman of Global Markets at BNP Paribas sat down with Bonds & Loans at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk 2018 conference in Dubai to talk about the GCC debt capital markets pipeline, the delicate balance between oil price and regional volatility for investors, and potential replacements for LIBOR.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.

Brazil: Low Selic Rate is Here to Stay

Although the pause in the cuts has come ahead of expectations, the basic interest rate hit an unprecedented level and, this time, it is here to stay. Even if some part of the monetary loosening is temporary, likely to revert when inflation is converging to its goal, there is a good chance of the Selic rate not coming back up to two digits. A key condition for that is the approval of Social Security reform that fends off the risks of public debt insolvency.

Off the Record: Interest Rates, Election Uncertainty Testing Turkish Issuers

Turkey has been making headlines over the last six months, rarely for enviable reasons – a large current account deficit, low interest rates and wobbly fundamentals culminated in the lira becoming the second cheapest EM currency in mid-May. Following the snap elections called last month, Bonds & Loans headed to Istanbul to look beyond the headlines and get some perspective from issuers and investors.

 

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