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Policy

17 Jul 2019   Policy, Africa, Global

As Global Superpowers Question Free Trade, Africa Welcomes it With Open Arms

The establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is both ambitious and impressive, not the least of which because it created a platform for 53 heads of state across a vast and diverse continent to agree on something. But whether or not it’s a game changer for intraregional trade – or the region’s financial markets – depends to a large extent on whether Africa’s leaders knuckle down and finally address far more practical barriers to growth and cross-border commerce.

Brazil: Despite a Challenging Outlook, the Local Market Grows Leaps and Bounds

It has not been an easy 12 months for Brazil’s corporate sector, which faces a multitude of challenges, both internal and external. Bolsonaro’s victory in the elections, though divisive, at least provided some reprieve from the political uncertainty that has weighed on Brazil’s markets in the run up to the vote. Still, many questions remain around the direction of policy, and the new government’s ability to push it through congress, as well as broader shifts in the macro-economic environment.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX was mixed last week despite the dovish signals from the Fed’s Powell. Weak data from emerging Asia support the notion that the ongoing US-China trade war will continue to weigh on global growth and trade, which is negative for EM. We remain cautious on EM, especially given our less dovish take on the Fed.

Ukraine’s PrivatBank: Bailin’ on the Bail-In?

A recent court ruling to reverse the National Bank of Ukraine’s decision to nationalise ailing lender PrivatBank sent the country’s banking system into disarray and even raised doubts over the country’s EU ascension prospects. The case, which some see as one of the first test-drives for the post-crisis era EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directives, is significant not just for the country’s economy and its new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, but also for the European banking industry more broadly.

Felipe Bomfim: Common to Invest in Infrastructure After Recessions, Brazil Is Very Competitive

Bonds & Loans spoke to Felipe Bomfim, Director at Patria Infrastructure, on pensions reform, festering growth of local capital markets and why the glass is always half-full for investors doing business in Brazil.

Trump’s Trade Policies: Sacrificing Long-Term Gain for Short-Term Pain

Donald Trump’s willingness to replace long-term global political planning in favour of short-term political opportunism marks a departure from 70-odd years of US foreign policy. In a nutshell, after a long line of US presidents worked hard to build global political capital and the Trump Administration has now decided to spend it. What does this mean for investors and policy makers in other countries, including EM?

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX remains vulnerable to ongoing global trade tensions. It may also suffer from the recalibration of market expectations regarding Fed policy. We remain negative on EM near-term until the outlook for both of these major drivers becomes clearer.

Belarus Looks East for Financing Over the Coming Year

Belarus has come a long way since its debut Eurobond issuance in 2010. As the government seeks to stabilise the economy and spur on foreign investment, there are many avenues through which Belarus can access financing. Speaking at a press briefing in London, Minister of Finance Maxim Yermalovich shares important insights into the country’s ongoing diversification efforts, capital raising strategy, and privatisation plans.

As the Economic Cycle Begins to Turn, Distressed Debt Opportunities Remain Limited

It’s been a slow year for investors eyeing distressed debt opportunities. With distressed funds worldwide securing substantially lower volumes than in 2018, and a potential reversal in US interest rate rises on the horizon, many investors currently view conventional strategies more favourably. Against a backdrop of continued volatility and a growing number of warning signs in both developed and local economies, it’s unclear just how soon such opportunities will arise.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM and risk assets should get a near-term boost from the good news coming out of the G20 meeting. Still, we caution against getting too optimistic on EM. Current US tariffs on Chinese goods will remain in place, which will continue to act as a headwind on global growth and trade.

 

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