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Currencies

13 Jun 2018   Macro, Currencies, Policy, Russia & CIS

Sanctions Unsanctioned: Russia Becomes EM’s Riskiest Safe Haven

By late 2017, to the surprise of naysayers, the Russian economy appeared to have successfully navigated a challenging sanctions-riddled period and by Q1 2018 was looking to be one of the better EM stories on the market. But the latest escalation in tensions with Washington, along with broader EM outflows, have seen the country’s issuance pipeline dry up even as economic fundamentals remain strong, especially relative to the struggling peers like Turkey and Argentina.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point.

Portfolio Manager: Blockchain will help DCM issuers, investors but middlemen could be wiped out

Disruptive new technologies such as cryptocurrencies and distributed-ledger technologies like blockchain are slowly penetrating the banking sector and debt capital markets, creating opportunities – and raising risks – for the traditional stakeholders.

Off the Record: Interest Rates, Election Uncertainty Testing Turkish Issuers

Turkey has been making headlines over the last six months, rarely for enviable reasons – a large current account deficit, low interest rates and wobbly fundamentals culminated in the lira becoming the second cheapest EM currency in mid-May. Following the snap elections called last month, Bonds & Loans headed to Istanbul to look beyond the headlines and get some perspective from issuers and investors.

CASE STUDY: Belarus Eurobond Prices Inside Better Credits, Opens CIS to Global Markets

Following up on its recent “double bill” international bond, the former Soviet republic hit the market again at a tough time, but the notes proved popular with international investors and saw some of the highest oversubscription levels in the sovereign space over the past year.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.

Has the Music Stopped Playing for Turkey?

As Turkey's Central Bank finally responds to the plight of Turkish lira with a 300bp overnight rate hike, Renaissance Capital's global chief economist Charlie Robertson looks back at how the country got itself into this pickle - and some of the possible solutions that could boost the economy.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a weak note, and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.

Albaraka Turk: Orderly QE Unwind, Deepening GCC Ties Position Turkey to Manage Market Volatility

With a weakened currency and political volatility riding high, some analysts are concerned about the growing likelihood of a hard landing in Turkey – ever more with the backdrop being a strengthening dollar and US monetary policy normalisation. We speak with Albaraka Turk Chief Treasury and Investment Officer Malek Temsah about the country’s economy and the banking sector.

 

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