In advance of our Bonds, Loans & Sukuk Nigeria 2018 conference and forthcoming special report on the region, Bonds & Loans met with a broad range of local finance leaders in order to get a sense of the risks and opportunities on the horizon.
Just a few years ago, barely any debt capital markets investors would have paid much attention to regions like Central Asia and the CIS. Yet with overwhelming demand for sovereign notes issued by the likes of Belarus and Tajikistan, regular issues from Kazakhstan and a highly anticipated debut Eurobond from Uzbekistan, the region is putting itself on the EM fixed income map.
Africa has a thriving telecoms sector with huge growth potential, but economic and political risks appear elevated – particularly in the continent’s largest economies. Thuto Shomang, Group Executive – Treasury at MTN Group, Africa’s largest mobile telecoms operator, talks to Bonds & Loans about the company’s funding objectives in 2018, and shares his views on how US monetary policy and credit ratings could weigh on MTN’s bid to diversify its sources of funding.
EM ended Friday under renewed selling pressures, and capped off a mostly softer week. COP, THB, and TWD were the best performers last week, while TRY, RUB, and ZAR were the worst. Despite a widely expected 25 bp hike, this week’s FOMC meeting still has potential to weigh on EM.
Promsvyazbank, one of a number of large private lenders to be taken under the government wing over the past year, is set to assume an unusual role of the Russian military’s main coffer. Manulife senior analyst Richard Segal considers the prospects of such a specialized lending institution in a challenging landscape of sector consolidation and international sanctions.
As Russia re-emerges from the sub-investment grade mire, Ashmore's Head of Research Jan Dehn questions the sensibility of the original downgrade and, more broadly, the approach credit rating agencies take on assessing sovereign risk.
African borrowers have boosted international borrowing over the past few years, but have investor perceptions of the benefits – and risks – inherent to investing on the continent changed during that period? Bonds & Loans speaks with Union Privatfonds EM Corporate Debt Head Sergey Dergachev about how African assets figure within his fixed income portfolios.
After a traumatic few years catalysed by the annexation of Crimea and the ensuing civil conflict with its easternmost regions, Ukraine has developed a certain degree of flexibility in managing a series of shocks encountered since. But a lack of progress on crucial reforms, political mismanagement, and consistent lack of access to credit for key sectors like agriculture threaten the progress achieved so far.
EM FX ended on a mixed note Friday, but capped off a very strong week overall. Best performers over the past week were RUB, ZAR, and COP, while the worst were PHP, CNY, and TWD. There is not much happening this week that could disrupt the weak dollar narrative, and so EM FX should continue to rally.
Brown Brothers Harriman: produced the following ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk in Frontier Markets. A country’s score directly reflects its creditworthiness and underlying ability to service its external debt obligations.
- Russia: Western Banks in Wait-and-See Mode Amid Consolidation, Sanctions Risk
- The Spectre of Communism Haunts Vietnam’s Credit Market Despite Solid Growth
- Paraguay is the new Star in the Mercosur
- ACRA, Russia’s Credit Rating Revolution, and Red Herring Reform
- Can South Africa Get its Fiscal Groove Back?
11 Apr 2018