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29 Nov 2017   Macro, Ratings, Currencies, Africa

Can South Africa Get its Fiscal Groove Back?

With real GDP growth at near zero and fiscal projects trending downward, it’s unsurprising Standard & Poor’s didn’t wait for the ANC leadership contest in late 2017, or the next budget release, to cut the country’s credit rating to junk. The real question now is: how quickly can the country reverse course?

Latin America Credit Markets Brief: 9 November – 23 November

Brazil to buy back USD1.82bn of sovereign bonds – Pemex issued a GBP450mn bond – Petrobras inked a USD1bn secured loan – Chile holds rates – Electricidad de Caracas defaulted in a 2018 bond – Venezuela gets downgraded to ‘SD’ – Venezulean authorities arrested top Citgo executives – Entre Rios tapped the international markets with a USD150mn

Middle East Credit Markets Brief: 09 November – 22 November

Kingdom Holdings halts borrowing plans – Citigroup will begin operations in KSA in early 2018 – London Court rules in favour of Dana’s bondholders – ADNOC secures USD6bn dual-tranche loan – Mazoon Electric Company issues a USD500mn sukuk – Lebanon carries out a debt swap – CIB to increase Tier 2 capital

Emerging Markets’ Greatest Bond Villain: Venezuela Enters Record-Breaking Default

In one of the strangest debt crises in recent history, a defiant president Maduro vowed to continue servicing Venezuela’s debt as global ratings and debt settlement agencies declared the sovereign and state-oil giant PDVSA in default. How long can the charade continue?

Russia, CIS, Europe & Turkey Credit Markets Brief: 02 November – 16 November

Petropavlovsk sold USD500mn of fresh debt –– PSB gets downgraded – Rosneft’s shares take a hit due to Venezuelan crisis – Venezuela and Russia agree on debt restructuring –ABLV placed USD40mn of unsubordinated notes – Belarus to issue USD600mn next year – The government to support Turkey’s export sector

Africa Credit Markets Brief: 01 November – 15 November

AfDB issued a USD2bn bond –Afreximbank to mobilise USD100bn to finance new trade deals – First Rand Bank secures dual-tranche syndicated loan – Nigeria to seek USD5.5bn in foreign borrowing – Namibia to boost public spending – DRC fails to account funds from Chinese loan – Chad and Glencore to talk debt restructuring – Army detains Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe

Latin America Credit Markets Brief: 26 October – 9 November

CAF tapped the international markets – Argentina raised interest rates by 100bp – Banorte and Interacciones to merge – Colombia pre-paid a bond – Brazil cuts rates – Banco Hipotecario issued a ARS6.3bn bond – Colombia’s stable outlook affirmed – Televisa’s head to step down – Venezuela to restructure USD60bn worth of debt

BBH: Frontier Sovereign Rating Model for Q4 2017

BBH has produced the following ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk in Frontier Markets. A country’s score directly reflects its creditworthiness and underlying ability to service its external debt obligations.

Russia, CIS, Europe & Turkey Credit Markets Brief: 19 October- 02 November

Rosselkhozbank to issue perpetual bonds – Petropavlovsk preparing its bond market debut –Croatia to hold a repo auction – Moldova cuts interest rates – Eurotorg issues Belarus’ first corporate bond – Greece to tap the international markets again – BOE hikes rates for first time since August 2016 – Relations between Turkey and the EU continue to deteriorate

Africa Credit Markets Brief: 18 October – 01 November

BADEA to support economic development in the continent – SA budget deficit rose 4.3% – AfDB suspended a loan to Nigeria – Kenya to reopen 5-year notes – Ghana issued USD1.3bn of fresh debt – Tanzania struck a deal with Barrick Gold for USD300mn – Inflation in Zambia dropped – Zimbabwe hopes to cut budget deficit to 4%

 

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