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Off the Record: Argentina Riding out the Storm

It has been a difficult year for Argentina. With inflation climbing above 40%, the ARS losing over half of its value against the US dollar, and lingering fears remaining following the Notebook scandal, investor confidence has been heavily dampened. But a reform-minded government, coupled with multilateral support, has created a sense that Argentina’s numerous structural deficiencies are beginning to be addressed, according to investors, corporate chiefs and DCM bankers on the ground in Buenos Aires.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX has come under renewed pressure as the dollar staged a broad-based recovery after the FOMC meeting. Data this week is likely to show continued robustness in the US economy, cementing a December hike by the Fed. Elsewhere, concerns about China, Italy, and Brexit are likely to weigh on market sentiment. We remain negative on EM.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX got some traction last week as the dollar rally stalled. Still, event risk remains high in many EM countries, notably Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey. The FOMC meeting this week is widely expected to see no actions, but the Fed should signal that a December hike is on track. As it is, US yields are marching higher again. We believe the global backdrop for EM remains negative.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a firm note but the week was still a bad one. We think risk-off impulses will continue and likely intensify in the coming weeks. As such, we remain negative on EM as an asset class. China will provide its first glimpse of October with PMI readings, while US jobs report Friday will be the data highlight of the week.

ESG Integration and Engagement: South Africa Sovereign Credit

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) indicators are integral to PIMCO’s sovereign credit assessments, which inform our investment decisions. But how exactly do we incorporate ESG considerations into our decisions?

Between The Spread Podcast: 2008 Financial Crisis - 10 Years On

In the exclusive new Bonds & Loans podcast we chat to Brad Tank, CIO of Neuberger Berman, on the aftermath of the biggest financial crisis the world faced in the past 30 years - and where the global markets are ten years on.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

We saw a significant EM positioning washout last week, with weak longs getting punished. Anyone lulled into jumping aboard the EM train recently is getting crushed by sharply higher US rates. ARS and BRL bucked the trend and gained last week, but all others were weaker and were led by ZAR, CLP, and COP. MSCI fell 4.5%, while EM bond yields surged. With US rates still marching higher, EM is likely to remain under pressure this week.

Off the Record: South Africa’s Benign Funding Environment a Boon for Some, Challenge for Others

With the October mini budget speech looming, South Africa’s economy and funding environment come sharply into focus; both remain in a precarious state. Analysts, investors, CFOs and Treasurers who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent research trip to the region emphasise that the way in which the macro environment evolves, and the way in which the government tackles key issues like land reform, will to a great extent dictate the country’s trajectory over the near, medium and long-term.

Off the Record: Banks in Russia – Shaken, not Stirred

The recent perturbations across EM assets, the looming shadow of current and potential new sanctions and subdued growth at home have taken a toll on the Russian financial sector. But prudent fiscal and monetary policies and timely actions to minimize sanctions impact have helped shelter banks operating in Russia and the CIS from serious damage, DCM bankers and corporate chiefs have told Bonds & Loans off record and on the ground in Moscow.

How Serbia Improved its Fiscal Position and Catalysed the Local Capital Markets

Branko Drcelic, Director of the Public Debt Administration at the Ministry of Finance, Serbia sat down with Bonds & Loans to discuss how the country moved from chronic deficits to a healthy surplus, catalysing a local currency debt capital market in the process.

 

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