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18 May 2017   Ratings, Americas, Mexico, Brazil, Andes

Private Placements: an Emerging Latam Trend

Latin American corporates are reaping the benefits of private placements, as yield-starved investors are drawn to region's shores.

Africa Credit Markets Brief

AfDB calls for investment across Africa to close annual US$162bn funding gap – Kenya borrows US$1bn via syndicated loan – Nigeria raises mere NGN100bn in bond sale – Nigeria looking to secure US$5.2bn World Back funding package – Zimbabwe warns South Africa over proposed land reform – Russia’s Rosatom committed to nuclear plant project in South Africa – Senegal issues Eurobond – Saudi Aramco stalls on US$20mn Zambia loan - Zimbabwe secures US$1.7bn loan from Afrexim Bank

Middle East Credit Markets Brief

Saudi Arabia loses market share in the oil sector – Saudi Electricity Co. in talks over sukuk – ACWA makes landmark 22-year trade – Etihad bonds drop on Alitalia news – UAE bankruptcy laws to improve operating environment – Dana Gas in debt restructuring talks – ADCB plans new issue – QNB hits the market, plans to make inroads in KSA – Bahrain feels FX strain – Oman in US$3.6bn loan talks – OETC prices upsized trade – Jordan places another Eurobond – NBK mulls new unsecured notes – Iran struggles to attract foreign investment

Rising Commodity Prices Give Emerging Markets Much Needed Boost

We believe the Fed is on track to hike at least three times this year. Yet EM currencies were mostly firmer in Q1, despite Fed tightening typically being very disruptive to EM. Why? The US dollar lost some traction as markets pushed out Fed tightening beyond March and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin seemed to push out fiscal stimulus into 2018. Rising commodity prices also helped buoy EM.

The Cape Town Shuffle: Rand Plummets as Zuma Sacks Chief Treasurer

The sacking of South Africa’s finance minister and his cabinet prompted another all-too-familiar slide in the rand and bond prices. As his successor takes office, the markets are tentatively awaiting signs about the direction of economic policy.

VIDEO: Interview with Michael Dunning, Head of Corporate Ratings, EMEA, Fitch Ratings

Bonds & Loans spoke with Michael Dunning, Regional Head of Analytics Group in EMEA Region for Fitch, about the success of Russia's macro outlook for 2017, the success of the banking sector clean-up and the prospects of the rouble.

The Worst Has Passed for Brazil’s Credit Cycle

Latin America Structured Finance Advisors, in conjunction with our partners in Brazil, used analysis of the buckets for aging bad loans to verify the findings of the rating agencies with an analysis of bad loans in 49 credit portfolios of Brazilian ABS. We found that most of the bad loans have reached 180 days past due and the percentage of delinquent loans in the earliest aging buckets have fallen below pre-2015 levels. This supports our view that Brazil’s credit crisis has peaked.

Basel III Could Drive Banking Sector Credit Rush in South Africa

With about ZAR72bn in senior unsecured bank debt maturing in 2017 and new Basel III requirements being phased in January 2018, analysts are forecasting an uptick in senior and subordinated issuance in South Africa through 2017 – a welcome change from relatively subdued volumes seen last year.

The Rating Agencies and Brazilian Society

Brazil’s economic team has set itself the goal of reclaiming Brazil’s investment grade rating. Some believe, however, that the government should not give so much importance to the rating agencies. After all, they failed to predict the global crisis of the previous decade.

In Indonesia’s JP Morgan, Hints of Turkey, Brazil Retribution for Unfavourable Forecasts Persist

As the risk of emerging market capital outflows continues to increases, EM government have become more sensitive to unfavourable reports by international institutions.

 

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