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28 May 2018   Global, Macro, Ratings, Currencies, Policy

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a weak note, and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.

SWOT Analysis: Nigeria, West Africa’s Largest Market

In advance of our Bonds, Loans & Sukuk Nigeria 2018 conference and forthcoming special report on the region, Bonds & Loans met with a broad range of local finance leaders in order to get a sense of the risks and opportunities on the horizon.

Pro-Western Stans: Central Asian Republics Mulling Capital Markets Push

Just a few years ago, barely any debt capital markets investors would have paid much attention to regions like Central Asia and the CIS. Yet with overwhelming demand for sovereign notes issued by the likes of Belarus and Tajikistan, regular issues from Kazakhstan and a highly anticipated debut Eurobond from Uzbekistan, the region is putting itself on the EM fixed income map.

MTN Group Treasurer: ‘Diversification High on Agenda, but Nigeria, SA Ratings a Key Risk’

Africa has a thriving telecoms sector with huge growth potential, but economic and political risks appear elevated – particularly in the continent’s largest economies. Thuto Shomang, Group Executive – Treasury at MTN Group, Africa’s largest mobile telecoms operator, talks to Bonds & Loans about the company’s funding objectives in 2018, and shares his views on how US monetary policy and credit ratings could weigh on MTN’s bid to diversify its sources of funding.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM ended Friday under renewed selling pressures, and capped off a mostly softer week. COP, THB, and TWD were the best performers last week, while TRY, RUB, and ZAR were the worst. Despite a widely expected 25 bp hike, this week’s FOMC meeting still has potential to weigh on EM.

PSB: From Undercapitalized Commercial Bank to Russian Military Bank

Promsvyazbank, one of a number of large private lenders to be taken under the government wing over the past year, is set to assume an unusual role of the Russian military’s main coffer. Manulife senior analyst Richard Segal considers the prospects of such a specialized lending institution in a challenging landscape of sector consolidation and international sanctions.

Ratings, Adversity, and EM Policy Responses

As Russia re-emerges from the sub-investment grade mire, Ashmore's Head of Research Jan Dehn questions the sensibility of the original downgrade and, more broadly, the approach credit rating agencies take on assessing sovereign risk.

UPF Corp EMD Head: ‘Africa has bright spots but transparency, governance still pitfalls'

African borrowers have boosted international borrowing over the past few years, but have investor perceptions of the benefits – and risks – inherent to investing on the continent changed during that period? Bonds & Loans speaks with Union Privatfonds EM Corporate Debt Head Sergey Dergachev about how African assets figure within his fixed income portfolios.

 

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