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Macro

2 Nov 2018   Macro, Policy, Asia Pacific

Pakistan: The Math of Khan

In Crucial Test for Khan, Pakistan Searches for Ways to Rebalance the Economic Numbers – but Will They Add Up?

Saudi Debt Surge Cuts Through Broader EM Woes – But for How Long?

The last few months have seen a spate of bond issuances from within Saudi Arabia, marking an upsurge in the frequency of borrowing in the country since the 2014 oil price crash. Yet on the whole sovereign issuance appears to be falling, as ambitious economic reforms begin to address the country’s economic imbalances.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a firm note but the week was still a bad one. We think risk-off impulses will continue and likely intensify in the coming weeks. As such, we remain negative on EM as an asset class. China will provide its first glimpse of October with PMI readings, while US jobs report Friday will be the data highlight of the week.

Investor: Turkey Has One of Lowest Debt/GDP Ratio’s in EM, but Inflation Still a Worry

Tevfik Eraslan, the CEO of İş Asset Management, a privately-owned investment manager based in Turkey (which also provides investment advisory services), discusses Q3 prospects for the Turkish economy, inflationary pressures and a diminishing political risk after next year’s elections.

Rising Rates, Volatility Force Latin American Banks, Borrowers to Adapt to “New Normal”

Latin American economies are facing a range of complex challenges, both internal and external, as they power through the current election super-cycle – arguably the most significant in the region’s history. Bonds & Loans spoke to a number of Latin America-focussed debt capital markets bankers, rating agencies and law firms in the Americas to get a sense of the major themes and concerns that will dominate the agenda in coming months.

Under Which Conditions are EM Countries Vulnerable to Economic Contagion Via Currency Volatility?

Jan Dehn, Head of Research at Ashmore, explains why there are two conditions that have to be satisfied before currency volatility can morph into major economic malaise.

Between The Spread Podcast: 2008 Financial Crisis - 10 Years On

In the exclusive new Bonds & Loans podcast we chat to Brad Tank, CIO of Neuberger Berman, on the aftermath of the biggest financial crisis the world faced in the past 30 years - and where the global markets are ten years on.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

We saw a significant EM positioning washout last week, with weak longs getting punished. Anyone lulled into jumping aboard the EM train recently is getting crushed by sharply higher US rates. ARS and BRL bucked the trend and gained last week, but all others were weaker and were led by ZAR, CLP, and COP. MSCI fell 4.5%, while EM bond yields surged. With US rates still marching higher, EM is likely to remain under pressure this week.

London Calling

The breadth and depth of London’s financial ecosystem, its broad appeal among investors and borrowers and the growing need for international borrowers to raise their credit profile is evident despite challenging geopolitical and market conditions. The City remains a top debt listing destination.

Fitch Ratings: ‘Nigeria growth outlook strong despite looming election’

Nigeria’s economy recorded better than expected private sector credit growth in the third quarter of this year, with more borrowers funnelling the proceeds towards CAPEX-related activities – despite next year’s federal election looming. We speak with Jan Friederich, a senior director at Fitch Ratings about lingering risks in the country.

 

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