Neeraj Agrawal, Chief Financial Officer of Crescent Petroleum sat down with Bonds & Loans at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk 2018 conference in Dubai to talk about the funding team's key priorities this year, and dislocations between risk and the perception of risk in the GCC.
EM FX ended Friday on a weak note, and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.
EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.
With a weakened currency and political volatility riding high, some analysts are concerned about the growing likelihood of a hard landing in Turkey – ever more with the backdrop being a strengthening dollar and US monetary policy normalisation. We speak with Albaraka Turk Chief Treasury and Investment Officer Malek Temsah about the country’s economy and the banking sector.
EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain under pressure.
The common denominator linking the US Trade War with China, sanctions against Russia and the attacks on Syria was that there were no attempts made to find solutions to these conflicts within multilateral institutions, such as the UN and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The word used to describe the act of seeking justice outside the formal framework of the law is vigilantism. Vigilantism leads to abuses of power, miscarriages of justice and insecurity. The descent into vigilantism will make the world a less safe place.
Carlos Kawall, the lead economist at one of Brazil’s most prominent banks, talks about the improving macro outlook for the country, burdensome tax and labour laws and the dark shadow of looming presidential elections.
The market for Additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 bonds issued out of the Middle East has blossomed since Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank broke ground on the first Basel III-compliant public Tier 1 capital issuance in 2012.
EM FX ended Friday on a firm note, capping off a generally softer week overall. TRY and PHP were the best performers last week, while CLP and ZAR were the worst. US core PCE, ISM manufacturing, FOMC meeting, and jobs data all pose risks to EM this week. We remain a bit defensive on risk assets in general now.
We are in uncharted waters regarding the level of basic interest rate, continuing a series of cuts that is the longest in history. It is possible, however, to foresee even more reductions of the Selic, despite the various uncertainties that the Central Bank faces.
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15 Jun 2018