Macro

21 Feb 2017   Macro, Policy, Global, Mexico

Protectionism and the Market Repercussions

As populist politicians and leaders rise to prominence in the developed world, anti-globalist attitudes and protectionism are also entering the economic frame. With Trump casting doubts over the future of NAFTA and Brexit putting a strain on EU's economic integration, Richard Segal, Senior Analyst at Manulife Asset Management, considers some of the practical effects these policies may bring in the coming years.

Basel III Could Drive Banking Sector Credit Rush in South Africa

With about ZAR72bn in senior unsecured bank debt maturing in 2017 and new Basel III requirements being phased in January 2018, analysts are forecasting an uptick in senior and subordinated issuance in South Africa through 2017 – a welcome change from relatively subdued volumes seen last year.

Colombia’s Central Bank Chief Vows to Aim for Inflation Target Despite Headwinds

Juan Jose Echavarria, the new Governor of Colombia’s Central Bank, has come into the job at a time of uncertainty for global markets. With inflationary pressures simmering, countered by the need to boost growth through tightening, Bonds & Loans asked the country’s top banker about the legacy he has inherited and how the Bank plans to navigate the challenging economic landscape ahead.

India’s Bond Market Could Dominate EMs in 2017

India’s efforts to curtail the shadow economy and go cashless, coupled with fresh measures introduced by the country’s securities regulator and contained within the latest government budget, are likely to give a big boost to India’s bond market in 2017 despite a number of headwinds that could continue to challenge emerging markets. The development of a viable secondary market could be within reach.

Belarus Stuck Between Russia and a Hard Place as Recession Escalates

As Belarus’ economic woes intensify, the annual bargaining with Russia over gas price threatens to escalate tensions and potentially undermine the Eastern European country’s economy.

Investors Think the Pendulum Could Swing Back on Argentina

Argentina, Latin America’s third largest economy, came roaring back to the markets in 2016 after a 15-year hiatus following its historic default on US$95bn of debt, and the first months of 2017 has shown few signs of deal flow letting up. But some investors are growing increasingly concerned that softer than expected growth and persistently high inflation may threaten the ability of Argentinian entities to repay investors.

Mexico, US: Is a Mexican Standoff Inevitable?

The notion that no party can walk away from the current Mexico-US confrontation unscathed is quickly gaining prominence among investors, issuers and observers. While investors are starting to move out of their short Mexican positions, analysts are split on what effect a Trump presidency, impending 2018 elections, and a new Central Bank governor will have on the country’s medium term prospects.

The Road to Relief in Brazil

The government is making efforts to correct past economic mistakes and advance the reforms, seeking to stabilize the macroeconomic environment. For some observers, the strategy is just another mistake, while for others it is insufficient, since a healthy macroeconomic environment does not guarantee sustained growth. But it is the foundation. We may be surprised by the results of efforts to stabilise the economy.

China and Shadow Financing

For the first time, the president of China was in attendance at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos this month. President Xi Jinping joined a roster of presidents, prime ministers, central bankers, executives and other officials from around the world at this prestigious event, which carried the theme this year of “responsive and responsible leadership.”

Brazil 2017: Here We Go (Hopefully, Not Again)

Last year was difficult to say the least, more so than 2015, despite the slightly smaller contraction of GDP. The financial health of firms in the productive sector deteriorated further, with sharp increases in filings for court-supervised reorganization and nonperforming bank loans, both reaching record levels, while unemployment rose, especially affecting household heads. What’s in store for 2017?

 

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