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Macro

16 Sep 2019   Macro, Global

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM is likely to come under pressure this week if risk-off sentiment picks up from the Saudi bombings. The oil producing countries may outperform but we think the global backdrop for EM remains negative, especially as US-China relations remain in flux. While things are not getting worse, neither are they getting better. Meanwhile, markets are coming to grips with the fact that the Fed is unlikely to ease as aggressively as has been priced in.

Modi’s Growth Plans Could be Hamstrung by Stagnating State Banks

Reinvigorated by his recent re-election, President Narendra Modi has vowed to set India on the path towards growth after the country’s weakest GDP print in nearly five years. Aggressive rate cuts, fiscal loosening, and a potential Eurobond issuance may help spark growth, but serious concerns about stagnant public-sector banks weigh heavily on the outlook.

IFC Treasurer: “Global debt markets are undergoing rapid transformation”

Bond markets are not particularly well-known for being cutting edge. The vast majority of trading still takes place over the phone, and the settlement process more often than not still takes days rather than hours or minutes. But in emerging markets, where funding innovation is helping borrowers overcome capital bottlenecks and Fintech is enabling new pockets of growth, that perception is changing – and rightly so. We speak with John Gandolfo, the Treasurer of IFC, the private sector-focused arm of the World Bank, about the headwinds facing the global economy, the growing importance of sustainability, and what the rise of Fintech and Regtech means for emerging market debt.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet. Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart. Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve. We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

Market sentiment rallied last week on a lot of unsubstantiated claims by President Trump regarding China trade talks. At best, we know there is no further escalation (for now). At worst, the two sides remain far apart, and a deal is unlikely until 2020. That’s no reason to load up on EM. As long as current and planned tariffs are in effect, global growth risks will remain high and EM will continue to suffer.

RMB: Governance Concerns in South Africa Risk Being Outweighed by Insatiable Demand for Assets

The South African fixed income market is at risk of neglecting governance-related issues if domestic demand for fixed income assets continues to outpace supply, according to Rand Merchant Bank’s Co-Head of the Debt Financing Group.

Frank Talk: US Global Investors on Fed Hikes, Trade War Risks, and Trump’s Infrastructure Push

In one of a series of exclusive market snapshots for Bonds & Loans, Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors and one of the most experienced and successful capital managers in the mining sector outlines the main risks to global economic stability, assesses the damage from US-China stand-off and describes Donald Trump as an “economic neocon.”

Neuberger Berman Emerging Market Debt PM: Biggest Risk to Investors is Commodity Price Swings

This year has seen yet another spate of debut sovereign issuances from across emerging markets (EM). Meanwhile, softening growth in China has tempered the GDP outlook across emerging markets. Bonds & Loans speaks with Kaan Nazli, Senior Economist and emerging markets sovereign debt Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman, about the EM outlook through 2019.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

The US-China trade war is extending and expanding. There is no longer any semblance of a truce, and this is unequivocally negative for EM. CNY, INR, SGD, MXN, and BRL are making new cycle lows, and many other EM currencies are likely to follow suit.

Ashmore: The Path to Averting a Default in Argentina

Investors are suddenly much more concerned about the political transition in Argentina, but default is by no means a certainty, argues Ashmore's Gustavo Medeiros, and opportunities abound.

 

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