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Macro

15 Jun 2018   Macro, Policy, Americas, Brazil

Brazil: The Kids Aren’t Alright

Despite Finance Ministry’s efforts to clean up public accounts and reduce fiscal risk in the future, the strategy for fiscal adjustment, as with the spending cap, has been gradual. As a consequence, one could not discard the risk of creeping insolvency, which could threaten the recently secured economic stability.

Reforms Amplify Uncertainty in Saudi Arabia’s Real Estate Sector

Saudi Arabia’s grand ambitions to create new large-scale residential, industrial, “shoppertainment” and other mixed-use developments could be a boon for the country’s – indeed the region’s – real estate developers, investors and financiers. But the sector’s potential has never looked so mixed.

Sanctions Unsanctioned: Russia Becomes EM’s Riskiest Safe Haven

By late 2017, to the surprise of naysayers, the Russian economy appeared to have successfully navigated a challenging sanctions-riddled period and by Q1 2018 was looking to be one of the better EM stories on the market. But the latest escalation in tensions with Washington, along with broader EM outflows, have seen the country’s issuance pipeline dry up even as economic fundamentals remain strong, especially relative to the struggling peers like Turkey and Argentina.

Bank of Singapore's Todd Schubert on GCC Credits and Fiscal Reform Effort

Todd Schubert, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research at Bank of Singapore sat down with us at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk 2018 conference in Dubai to talk about GCC credits from both relative value and absolute perspectives, and assess the success of key fiscal reform efforts undertaken in the region.

VIDEO: Martin Egan at BNP Paribas Talks GCC DCM Pipeline, Oil and Geopolitics, and LIBOR

Martin Egan, Vice Chairman of Global Markets at BNP Paribas sat down with Bonds & Loans at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk 2018 conference in Dubai to talk about the GCC debt capital markets pipeline, the delicate balance between oil price and regional volatility for investors, and potential replacements for LIBOR.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.

SkyWorld Development CFO on Issuing Malaysia’s First Musharakah Sukuk, IPO Plans, and Reform

Malaysia is currently in the midst of significant political change, and the country’s borrowers seem optimistic about the renewed urgency around fiscal reform. We speak with Andy Leong Chain Hong, CFO of SkyWorld Development Group, a leading property developer in Malaysia, about the direction of the economy following the country’s landmark elections, and discuss the company’s pioneering Musharakah sukuk.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.

Has the Music Stopped Playing for Turkey?

As Turkey's Central Bank finally responds to the plight of Turkish lira with a 300bp overnight rate hike, Renaissance Capital's global chief economist Charlie Robertson looks back at how the country got itself into this pickle - and some of the possible solutions that could boost the economy.

Neeraj Agrawal, CFO, Crescent Petroleum on Raising New Capital in Rising Rate Environment

Neeraj Agrawal, Chief Financial Officer of Crescent Petroleum sat down with Bonds & Loans at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk 2018 conference in Dubai to talk about the funding team's key priorities this year, and dislocations between risk and the perception of risk in the GCC.

 

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