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Macro

17 Dec 2018   Macro, Currencies, Policy, Global

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

Global growth concerns are likely to keep EM on its back foot. China and the eurozone reported weak economic data Friday, and even a much stronger than expected US retail sales report was not enough to turn market sentiment.

Nigerian Credit Sees Strong Demand but Election, Oil, Fiscal Metrics Weigh on Growth Outlook

Moving forward with plans to swap its debt from local currency into dollars, Nigeria’s Federal Government successfully placed close to USD3bn in international bond markets through a widely subscribed issuance in November that saw roughly three times that amount in demand from investors. But analysts are concerned that a confluence of factors – declining oil prices, persistently poor revenue generation, slowness to reform and an increasingly volatile political environment – could arrest the optimism and capital markets momentum generated by the sale.

Rimrock Capital: “Concrete, realistic and credible policy needed to improve Turkey’s credit”

Turkey’s credit fundamentals are deteriorating, squeezed by high exposure of the corporates to USD debt and rising NPLs. Strong and transparent policy measures – including supporting local banks if necessary – are needed to breath life into the economy, Novruz Bashirov, Portfolio Manager at Rimrock Capital, told Bonds & Loans.

GCC Credit Allure Strong Against Broader EM Challenges, But Fundamental Shifts Can’t be Ignored

The outlook for GCC credit remains buoyant through the remainder of the year despite a brief lull through the summer months. Still, deeper and more frequent questions about the structural challenges faced by many of the GCC economies suggest more uncertainty lies ahead in the longer term, according to bankers, borrowers, investors and economists who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent research trip to the region.

Quick Take: Burcu Geris, Vice President and CFO, TAV Airports on the Markets, Treasury Objectives

Bonds & Loans speaks with Burcu Geris, Vice President and CFO, TAV Airports Holding about the company’s funding objectives and how markets are influencing the company’s approach to fundraising.

Political Volatility Breaks Wave of M&As in Latin America

The first half of 2018 has seen a record-breaking volume of corporate consolidation across the globe, and Latin America has become a prominent setting for such activity. The latest slowdown in M&A activity is thought to be stemming from the peak of elections-related volatility, from Mexico to Brazil, and most expect business to continue as usual once the dust settles.

Off the Record: Argentina Riding out the Storm

It has been a difficult year for Argentina. With inflation climbing above 40%, the ARS losing over half of its value against the US dollar, and lingering fears remaining following the Notebook scandal, investor confidence has been heavily dampened. But a reform-minded government, coupled with multilateral support, has created a sense that Argentina’s numerous structural deficiencies are beginning to be addressed, according to investors, corporate chiefs and DCM bankers on the ground in Buenos Aires.

Beyond 2030: Diversification, Corporate Transformation and Funding in the UAE

The United Arab Emirates among other GCC nations has set its sights on the cultivation of a well-diversified, mature economy built on strong, sustainable, globally-integrated businesses. For many borrowers looking to get in front of the trend, the shift will entail a radical transformation in corporate culture and approach to funding.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX has come under renewed pressure as the dollar staged a broad-based recovery after the FOMC meeting. Data this week is likely to show continued robustness in the US economy, cementing a December hike by the Fed. Elsewhere, concerns about China, Italy, and Brexit are likely to weigh on market sentiment. We remain negative on EM.

Oil Market – Recent Trends and Outlook

Oil prices continue to stay elevated above the USD 80/b mark, the highest level in the last four years, led by tightening supplies in the global oil market. Supply-side factors once again continue to sway oil prices as it did in 2014 when crude prices started declining as US shale players pumped oil unabated.

 

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