Analysing and investing in Frontier Emerging Markets usually comes with its fair share of challenges; often, these are centred on availability or quality of data, news, language barriers, and finally, accessibility. Gabon is a great example of how these challenges can distort the real opportunities before us, and progress made on key initiatives.
Bonds & Loans spoke with Michael Dunning, Regional Head of Analytics Group in EMEA Region for Fitch, about the success of Russia's macro outlook for 2017, the success of banking sector clean-up and the prospects of the rouble.
Inflation targets are widely used by Central Banks throughout the world. In countries with moderate inflation, this regime helps keep inflation well behaved, with less cost to economic activity. In countries with low inflation, the risk of deflation can be mitigated by setting a suitable target. This targeting also makes monetary policy more predictable, contributing to a stable economic environment, but defining an ideal target is an imperfect science at best.
Having weathered most of 2016 quite well, Kenya faces a number of domestic and external headwinds including a prolonged drought and increasing uncertainty around the future policy direction in the US, UK and Europe. But Patrick Njoroge, Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya believes some of these challenges also present opportunities – to explore further East African policy integration, double down on helping banks navigate new challenges, and facilitate the development of new and innovative financial instruments like green bonds.
Cities have the power to transform themselves and raise the standard of living for their inhabitants, but in Africa many have struggled in this endeavor due to lack of access to financing. To get a sense of how we can succeed, it is important to assess how others have failed. Here is a first-hand glimpse of the unsuccessful launch of West Africa’s first city-level bond.
Market failures exist, and they require government intervention. But many distortions in the economic system are not necessarily the result of market failures. Often, they are born of mistaken government action, which then weigh heavily on economic activity. A good example in Brazil: banks.
For the past few years Chile has seen its worst economic performance since the crisis of 1981, largely the result of depressed copper prices – which have been falling since 2011. With copper being bested by rivals such as iron ore and nickel, persistent global supply disruptions, and a lack of economic diversification, some have wondered whether Chile could continue to lose out on critical investment to commodity-rich neighbours like Peru.
As populist politicians and leaders rise to prominence in the developed world, anti-globalist attitudes and protectionism are also entering the economic frame. With Trump casting doubts over the future of NAFTA and Brexit putting a strain on EU's economic integration, Richard Segal, Senior Analyst at Manulife Asset Management, considers some of the practical effects these policies may bring in the coming years.
With about ZAR72bn in senior unsecured bank debt maturing in 2017 and new Basel III requirements being phased in January 2018, analysts are forecasting an uptick in senior and subordinated issuance in South Africa through 2017 – a welcome change from relatively subdued volumes seen last year.
Juan Jose Echavarria, the new Governor of Colombia’s Central Bank, has come into the job at a time of uncertainty for global markets. With inflationary pressures simmering, countered by the need to boost growth through tightening, Bonds & Loans asked the country’s top banker about the legacy he has inherited and how the Bank plans to navigate the challenging economic landscape ahead.
- India’s Bond Market Could Dominate EMs in 2017
- Belarus Stuck Between Russia and a Hard Place as Recession Escalates
- Investors Think the Pendulum Could Swing Back on Argentina
- Mexico, US: Is a Mexican Standoff Inevitable?
- The Road to Relief in Brazil
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