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Macro

28 Jun 2017   Global, Macro, Currencies

BBH: EM FX Model for 3Q 2017

After a tough start to the year, EM has been able to get traction. Many EM currencies are trading at multi-year highs, while EM equities (as measured by MSCI EM) are trading at the highest levels since 2015.

Argentina’s Bond Ambitions May Lead to Century of Economic Pain

Argentina continued its debt bonanza this month as it joined a handful of countries to offer a unique 100-year bond that proved to be an unbelievable success with investors. But as the country’s debt pile grows, some analysts have begun to wonder whether Argentina could fall victim to its own success.

Middle East Credit Markets Brief: June 9 - June 23

GCC sukuk issuance topped US$22bn in 1H2017 – Saudi Arabia has a new heir to the throne – Saudi Arabia was added to MSCI’s watch list for a potential upgrade – UAE banks’ loan books grow by 2.13% – Dana Gas sukuk deemed “unlawful” – Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund has injected deposits into local banks to boost liquidity – QPSC said it expects to meet its earnings targets

Venezuela State Asset Firesale Continues Amid Hard Currency Shortages

Even as Venezuela continues to get rid of its last remaining financial assets in its quest for fresh cash; analysts believe that a default in the crisis-struck nation is just a matter of time

Latin America Credit Markets Brief: June 9 – June 22

Navistar Financial tapped the local markets – Temer denies corruption allegations – IFC is investing in Banco Industrial do Brazil – Temer received another setback in the Senate – Argentina issued a 100-year bond – MSCI snubbed Argentina – Davivienda issued a triple- tranche bond in the local markets – Chile issued a US$1.2bn bond – Panama’s inflation eased – Petroperu tapped the international markets – Venezuela fails to pay debt

Is Kenya’s Economic Model Sustainable?

Kenya is a leading engine of growth in East Africa, but analysts are growing increasingly concerned about the country’s ability to keep up the pace as a toxic combination of credit growth-stifling regulations, excessive government borrowing and low revenue generation conspire to threaten its outlook.

BBH: EM FX Model for 2Q 2017

Soft US data and delays to fiscal stimulus plans from the Trump administration has led to a rethink of Fed tightening expectations, while lover commodity prices continued to drive down EM currencies through much of the second quarter. Here is BBH’s’ quarterly update on foreign exchange dynamics in emerging markets.

Brazil: The Central Bank Got It Right

Central bankers in Brazil don’t have easy lives, as shown by recent events. Just when the economy seemed to be heading in the right direction, up pops another political crisis that has increased uncertainties – particularly on the reform front. The social security reform is the main focus, due to its consequences on the government’s solvency, but monetary policy is very much in play.

The Best and Worst Performers in Emerging Markets

During its mid-year review, Ashmore Group, an investment firm specialising in emerging market assets, laid out its take on the performance of emerging markets through the rest of 2017.

Does the Fate of Kazakhstan’s Financial System Rest on a Merger?

As the two biggest lenders in Kazakhstan prepare to merge, creating the largest bank in Central Asia, analysts question whether it will be enough to stabilize the country’s troubled financial system.

 

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