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Macro

18 May 2017   Macro, Policy, Russia & CIS

Russian Central Bank Shift Away from Transparency Irks Investors

While the move could raise some suspicions about the real health of Russia’s banking sector, the relative stability of Russia’s top tier lenders keeps investors at ease – for now.

Africa Credit Markets Brief

AfDB calls for investment across Africa to close annual US$162bn funding gap – Kenya borrows US$1bn via syndicated loan – Nigeria raises mere NGN100bn in bond sale – Nigeria looking to secure US$5.2bn World Back funding package – Zimbabwe warns South Africa over proposed land reform – Russia’s Rosatom committed to nuclear plant project in South Africa – Senegal issues Eurobond – Saudi Aramco stalls on US$20mn Zambia loan - Zimbabwe secures US$1.7bn loan from Afrexim Bank

Will Brexit Dent London’s Lead in Public Debt Listing?

What Brexit will mean for the City of London remains somewhat of a mystery; as European bureaucrats debate the UK’s future in the single market, banks are already preparing their contingency plans. EM debt traders, however, seem unfazed by these developments.

Drought Fears Ease, but East African Countries Could Struggle to Restore Growth

Record-setting droughts in East African economies have caused food and – in some cases – power prices to rise dramatically, putting a damper on the region’s economy. But with the growth outlook moderating in the region’s largest economies, analysts are turning their attention to the steep drop in private sector credit growth, raising questions about whether this could prolong the lag. Furthering regional integration could be the answer.

Middle East Credit Markets Brief

Saudi Arabia loses market share in the oil sector – Saudi Electricity Co. in talks over sukuk – ACWA makes landmark 22-year trade – Etihad bonds drop on Alitalia news – UAE bankruptcy laws to improve operating environment – Dana Gas in debt restructuring talks – ADCB plans new issue – QNB hits the market, plans to make inroads in KSA – Bahrain feels FX strain – Oman in US$3.6bn loan talks – OETC prices upsized trade – Jordan places another Eurobond – NBK mulls new unsecured notes – Iran struggles to attract foreign investment

After Scandal, Economic Slowdown, Malaysia Finally on the Recovery Path

For a country facing several years of economic pressure, Malaysia showed tremendous discipline in eliminating fiscal imbalances and managing the country’s volatile currency. But for Prime Minister Najib Razak, once a focal point of a massive scandal involving state-run wealth fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), winning back the country’s hard earned reputation and credibility will be difficult at best.

Investors Eye Zambian Reforms as Lungu Faces Crucial Test

Rising tensions between the Zambian government, led by President Edgar Lungu, and opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema, have done little to deter investors who are closely watching the country as it looks to clinch a critical IMF funding programme. They should not be so quick to dismiss the recent escalation that led to Hichilema's arrest and its implications for governance in the Sub-Saharan African country.

Brazil: Temer’s Legacy is The Next President’s Inheritance

Economist Zeina Latif warns of the risks of sweeping Brazil’s current problems under the carpet and leaving them for the next administration to deal with.

When it Comes to Labour Unions, Brazil is Not Venezuela

Brazil is really learning how to be modern. This week the Congress approved the new Labour Laws, making up-to-date the labour laws created by President Getulio Vargas over 70 years ago.

GCC Fiscal Break-Even Oil Prices Show Some Adjustment, But Balanced Budgets Are a Way Off

Spending cuts, non-oil revenue measures and falling subsidy bills have all contributed to falling fiscal break-even prices. However, only Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and Qatar are somewhat more comfortable at current oil price levels, taking investment income from their large wealth funds into account. Break-even prices are slated to remain high in Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia even after recent reductions, and their balance sheets will continue to worsen in the absence of further fiscal adjustment or a stronger oil price rally.

 

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