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Off The Record: The Top 5 Emerging Market Credit Trends in 2018

It has been a stellar year for emerging market credit, with most of the key benchmark indices outperforming and EM fundamentals broadly improving – while the global economy continues to heat up. But with QE – one of the main forces driving yield-hungry investors into EMs – winding down, a slew of EM elections on the horizon, and uncertainty over the direction of large developed economies like the US, what are the top trends likely to be seen in EM credit in 2018?

Can South Africa Get its Fiscal Groove Back?

With real GDP growth at near zero and fiscal projects trending downward, it’s unsurprising Standard & Poor’s didn’t wait for the ANC leadership contest in late 2017, or the next budget release, to cut the country’s credit rating to junk. The real question now is: how quickly can the country reverse course?

EuroChem Focussed on Latin America, Asia as Fertilizer Industry Recovers

Over the past year, Russian fertilizer giant EuroChem Group AG has made great strides in opening new markets, tapping the growing demand in Asia and Latin America, and spending over USD6bn on two mines to produce potash, a high-quality soil fertilizer. Bonds & Loans catches up with the company’s CFO Andrey Ilyin to discuss the industry outlook, the company’s financing plans for 2018, and how it plans to diversify into new regions.

Latin America Credit Markets Brief: 9 November – 23 November

Brazil to buy back USD1.82bn of sovereign bonds – Pemex issued a GBP450mn bond – Petrobras inked a USD1bn secured loan – Chile holds rates – Electricidad de Caracas defaulted in a 2018 bond – Venezuela gets downgraded to ‘SD’ – Venezulean authorities arrested top Citgo executives – Entre Rios tapped the international markets with a USD150mn

Middle East Credit Markets Brief: 09 November – 22 November

Kingdom Holdings halts borrowing plans – Citigroup will begin operations in KSA in early 2018 – London Court rules in favour of Dana’s bondholders – ADNOC secures USD6bn dual-tranche loan – Mazoon Electric Company issues a USD500mn sukuk – Lebanon carries out a debt swap – CIB to increase Tier 2 capital

China’s Funding Options for Belt & Road: Will Emerging Markets Make Hay or Get Shut Out?

Unperturbed by global economic woes, geopolitical tensions and the rise of populism in the West, China is committing itself to the largest infrastructure development project since the Great Wall. But the costs of the grand project are expected to run into hundreds of billions of dollars and, with the Chinese banking sector already over-leveraged, questions arise over its ability to finance projects and the funding alternatives available to it.

Russia, CIS, Europe & Turkey Credit Markets Brief: 02 November – 16 November

Petropavlovsk sold USD500mn of fresh debt –– PSB gets downgraded – Rosneft’s shares take a hit due to Venezuelan crisis – Venezuela and Russia agree on debt restructuring –ABLV placed USD40mn of unsubordinated notes – Belarus to issue USD600mn next year – The government to support Turkey’s export sector

Africa Credit Markets Brief: 01 November – 15 November

AfDB issued a USD2bn bond –Afreximbank to mobilise USD100bn to finance new trade deals – First Rand Bank secures dual-tranche syndicated loan – Nigeria to seek USD5.5bn in foreign borrowing – Namibia to boost public spending – DRC fails to account funds from Chinese loan – Chad and Glencore to talk debt restructuring – Army detains Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe

Brazil: There’s No National Saviour

The Temer administration appears to have lost the communication battle. It has achieved several advances on the economic agenda, and according to Carlos Pereira, this has been achieved at a cost – in terms of cabinet appointments and budget allocations in favour of lawmakers – lower than that paid under previous presidents. All the same, mistrust prevails, with a distorted interpretation of more or less any initiative undertaken by government.

Latin America Credit Markets Brief: 26 October – 9 November

CAF tapped the international markets – Argentina raised interest rates by 100bp – Banorte and Interacciones to merge – Colombia pre-paid a bond – Brazil cuts rates – Banco Hipotecario issued a ARS6.3bn bond – Colombia’s stable outlook affirmed – Televisa’s head to step down – Venezuela to restructure USD60bn worth of debt

 

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