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Macro

20 Aug 2018   Macro, Currencies, Global

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX stabilized last week as the situation in Turkey calmed somewhat. Reports Friday that the US and China are hoping to resolve the trade dispute also helped EM FX ahead of the weekend. However, TRY remains vulnerable as the US threatens more sanctions due to the pastor. Both S&P and Moody’s downgraded it ahead of the weekend and our own ratings model points to further downgrades ahead. Turkish markets are closed this week for holiday.

A US-China Trade Dispute May Be Good for Latin America

Latin America may have more to gain than lose in a U.S.-China trade dispute, so long as it does not spiral into a recession-provoking trade war, writes John Price.

Russia Seeks to Mobilize Internal Reserves Amid Dollar Liquidity Shortage

The Russian Central Bank tentatively confirmed that the banking sector is experiencing a dollar liquidity deficit. In an apparent push to de-dollarize the economy, it may for now resist from intervening, hoping to encourage more local currency borrowing. But inaction could pile additional pressure on the rouble in coming months.

African Trade Insurance Agency: Sovereign Debt, Current Account Balances Need Watchful Eye

How is the current macro environment – rising interest rates, a global escalating trade war, and elevated regional sovereign debt – influencing East African markets? John Lentaigne, Chief Underwriting Officer at African Trade Insurance Agency, speaks with Bonds & Loans about the economic outlook in some of the region’s largest economies.

Barings: Brazil's Industrial Production Soars in June after Truckers' Strike Ends

Brazil’s current account balance came in at a surplus of USD435mn in June, below the USD1.3bn surplus registered in the same month last year.

Interview: Sharjah DMO Director on the Building Boom in UAE, ECA Financing and PPPs

With trade wars and geopolitics-related volatilities engulfing global markets, the GCC finds itself in an unusual role of a relative safe-haven, insulated from the tremors by strong growth and a high oil price. We speak to Tom Koczwara, Director of the Government of Sharjah’s Debt Management Office, about prospects and challenges facing the Emirate.

2019 Elections Weigh on Nigeria’s Outlook Despite Broad Economic Improvement

As the debt capital markets continues to deepen in Nigeria and the fundamentals continue to stabilize, upcoming elections and simmering security threats look set to test investor and borrower conviction.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX has come under pressure again due to ongoing trade tensions and rising US rates, but saw some modest relief Friday after the PBOC announcement on FX forwards. This helped EM FX stabilize, but we do not think the negative fundamental backdrop has changed. Best performers last week were MXN, PHP, and PEN while the worst were TRY, ZAR, and KRW.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar. Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP. BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX.

Turkey: What does the Financial Stability Report Tells Us?

The Central Bank of Turkey recently published its financial stability report and it tells us a lot about the economic risks and opportunities moving forward more broadly. Manulife analyst Richard Segal provides a digest of the report and assesses the implications for Turkey’s economy.

 

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