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Macro

24 May 2019   Africa, Macro

Game Over, Zambia – Please Insert IMF Token to Continue Playing

In the world of emerging and frontier markets, there is rarely a dull moment. But while countries like Venezuela or Argentina continue grabbing headlines, one country in southern Africa is starting to creep ever so slowly into the limelight – and it’s not Mozambique.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM remains hostage to global trade tensions. Last week’s moves by the US to with regards to Japan, EU, Canada, and Mexico should only be viewed as a change in tactics. China is now the sole focus, but these other trade skirmishes are likely to flare again. We remain negative on EM within this environment.

Buoyant Markets Herald Strong Start for GCC Credits in 2019: Where Next for the Region?

With further bond index inclusion on the horizon and oil prices holding steady, CFOs and Treasurers are optimistic about the GCC region’s credit market prospects. But the accelerated pace at which today’s markets are evolving is reducing long-term visibility and raising questions over the kind of macro and monetary policy environment borrowers and investors are likely to find themselves in going forward, according to fundraising specialists who participated with an exclusive CFO roundtable co-hosted by HSBC and Bonds & Loans in Dubai.

My Baby, Xi Wrote Me A Letter

With the trade war heating up, we have been getting more questions about yuan policy. Despite renewed US-China tensions being a headwind for the mainland economy, we do not see the yuan being used as a weapon in this trade war.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a firm note on optimism that a trade deal will be reached. We think that optimism is misplaced and so look for EM weakness to resume this week. Indeed, rhetoric from both sides over the weekend suggest things will get worse before they get better.

Hungary Whets Investors’ Appetite with Corporate Bond Support Programme

The government intends to foster growth of the local debt capital markets by hoovering up as much as HUF300bn worth of corporate bonds, but how the Central Bank’s recent hawkish signals and intent to load up the balance sheet squares with those plans is raising questions among investors.

HSBC Brazil CEO Sees Funding Opportunities as Turnaround Continues

As key reforms progress through the various arteries of Brazil’s governments, most investors and lenders remain resolutely optimistic about the market’s prospects – few more than HSBC, which recently announced its intention to significantly expand its presence in the country and re-establish itself as one of its top international banks.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX was whipsawed last week by conflicting Fed views and softer than expected US weekly earnings. We continue to believe that the bar is set very high for a rate cut this year, and that markets have not adjusted accordingly yet. The divergence theme that favors the dollar should come back to the forefront as RBA, RBNZ, and Norges Bank are all likely to deliver dovish holds. Indeed, there are significant risks of rate cuts by the Antipodeans.

Turkey Looks East for Much-Needed FDI Boost

Asian investors are being sought as natural candidates for a revival of foreign investment in Turkey, according to CFOs, bankers and investors who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent research trip to Istanbul. Whether investors in the Far East oblige is another question entirely.

Ashmore Group: Beware of Big Fiscal

Having exhausted most monetary policy levers, fiscal stimulus appears to be the ultimate go-to solution for lack of growth in the developed world – but it is often very costly, and tends to stand in the way of deeper, much-needed structural reform. Ashmore's Jan Dehn looks at how this dilemma may be resolved.

 

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