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Investor Insights

18 Oct 2018   Projects, Americas, Andes, Latin America

SWOT Analysis of Colombia’s Credit Markets

Bonds & Loans team spent some time on the ground in Colombia to meet with a broad range of local finance leaders in order to get a sense of the risks and opportunities on the horizon in the Andean country.

Under Which Conditions are EM Countries Vulnerable to Economic Contagion Via Currency Volatility?

Jan Dehn, Head of Research at Ashmore, explains why there are two conditions that have to be satisfied before currency volatility can morph into major economic malaise.

Between The Spread Podcast: 2008 Financial Crisis - 10 Years On

In the exclusive new Bonds & Loans podcast we chat to Brad Tank, CIO of Neuberger Berman, on the aftermath of the biggest financial crisis the world faced in the past 30 years - and where the global markets are ten years on.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

We saw a significant EM positioning washout last week, with weak longs getting punished. Anyone lulled into jumping aboard the EM train recently is getting crushed by sharply higher US rates. ARS and BRL bucked the trend and gained last week, but all others were weaker and were led by ZAR, CLP, and COP. MSCI fell 4.5%, while EM bond yields surged. With US rates still marching higher, EM is likely to remain under pressure this week.

Franklin Templeton Sees Strong Project Finance Pipeline in GCC

Franklin Templeton’s Senior Research Analyst Franck Nowak concedes that some optimism has faded over the past quarter, especially as Fed hikes look inevitable and EM jitters have settled in, but underscores the fact that GCC bonds are performing still well and project finance is expected to drive the deal pipeline for the region in 2018.

Emerging Markets: Déjà vu 2002

As emerging markets continue to suffer from broad sell-offs by risk-wary investors, some see the parallels to similar developments that happened back in 2002. In this exclusive piece of analysis, Ashmore's Jan Dehn considers those parallels - and explains why they only go so far in explaining the current situation.

The Flipside of Turkey

United States sanctions against two Turkish government ministers triggered the recent bout of volatility in the Turkish currency market. While Turkey was fundamentally vulnerable to begin with, due to a lengthy period of bad economic policies, the fact that volatility was so severe and spread far beyond Turkey indicates that this was not just about Turkey. It is also about the major shift in America’s use of soft power on the global stage.

Abraaj Collapse Reverberates Through GCC Private Equity Markets

As recently as 2016 the Abraaj Group was flying high: with around USD13.6bn of assets under management globally, the investment firm was one of the biggest in the region and blazed the trail for GCC private equity investors to expand into the growth markets. Two years on, abandoned by its founder Arif Naqvi, it is facing USD1.2bn in debt, multiple lawsuits and an unprecedented level of attention and scrutiny from authorities, threatening to send shockwaves through Middle East’s financial markets.

Brazil Election: The Wacky Races

There is no lack of tricks, opportunism and muddling in Brazil's latest electoral race. It is hard to determine what is worse: the silence of Jair Bolsonaro on basic economic issues or the incapacity of PT for renewing its economic agenda.

Turkey: Call and Response

With Turkey seemingly approaching a critical junction in its economic trajectory, a call with the country’s Minister of Finance sheds light on how the country looks to tackle the rising challenges confronting it. Manulife analyst Richard Segal shares the details.

 

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