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Investor Insights

11 Jul 2019   Currencies, Policy, Americas, Video, Brazil

Felipe Bomfim: Common to Invest in Infrastructure After Recessions, Brazil Is Very Competitive

Bonds & Loans spoke to Felipe Bomfim, Director at Patria Infrastructure, on pensions reform, festering growth of local capital markets and why the glass is always half-full for investors doing business in Brazil.

Trump’s Trade Policies: Sacrificing Long-Term Gain for Short-Term Pain

Donald Trump’s willingness to replace long-term global political planning in favour of short-term political opportunism marks a departure from 70-odd years of US foreign policy. In a nutshell, after a long line of US presidents worked hard to build global political capital and the Trump Administration has now decided to spend it. What does this mean for investors and policy makers in other countries, including EM?

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX remains vulnerable to ongoing global trade tensions. It may also suffer from the recalibration of market expectations regarding Fed policy. We remain negative on EM near-term until the outlook for both of these major drivers becomes clearer.

As the Economic Cycle Begins to Turn, Distressed Debt Opportunities Remain Limited

It’s been a slow year for investors eyeing distressed debt opportunities. With distressed funds worldwide securing substantially lower volumes than in 2018, and a potential reversal in US interest rate rises on the horizon, many investors currently view conventional strategies more favourably. Against a backdrop of continued volatility and a growing number of warning signs in both developed and local economies, it’s unclear just how soon such opportunities will arise.

GCC SWOT Analysis: New Policies Foster Capital Markets Growth Despite Iran Tensions

A closer look at the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats influencing the investment and debt capital markets climate in the GCC economies.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM is benefiting from the more benign global liquidity story. However, we do not think this is enough to sustain the rally. Global growth and trade remains at risk and so we are cautious about piling into EM right now.

How to Price In Human Risk and Other Intangibles

ESG – shorthand for environmental, social and governance – considerations are increasingly being prioritised by organisations, investors and lenders alike. But quantifying its influence on credit risk and funding is proving to be quite elusive. A group of former finance professionals and academics is trying to change that by putting “intangibles” like human risk, corporate culture and values at the centre of that relationship.

Brazil: Beware of Murphy’s Law

The current fragile state of Brazil’s economy carries high risks. This time around, there are no buffers, because the unemployment rate is already at record highs. A recession now would entail social costs much greater than those of 2015, warns XPI's Zeina Latif.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

We think the global backdrop remains very negative for EM. Rising tariffs pose significant risks to global growth and trade. We expect both China and Mexico to retaliate further in the coming days. At this point, a potentially more dovish Fed and ECB (amongst many others) is simply not enough to help EM get any traction.

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

The global backdrop for EM remains challenging. Trade tensions remain high and show no sign of letting up. China PMIs will offer the first snapshot of the economy for May and it won’t be pretty. Lastly, press reports suggest the US will consider allowing tariffs on countries that have undervalued currencies. No good will come of this for EM.

 

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