EM is likely to come under pressure this week if risk-off sentiment picks up from the Saudi bombings. The oil producing countries may outperform but we think the global backdrop for EM remains negative, especially as US-China relations remain in flux. While things are not getting worse, neither are they getting better. Meanwhile, markets are coming to grips with the fact that the Fed is unlikely to ease as aggressively as has been priced in.
Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet. Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart. Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve. We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.
Known for a wide range of high-profile investments into companies like automotive heavyweight McLaren Group and metals giant Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), Mumtalakat – Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund – is doubling down on its search for investment opportunities that have a lasting positive impact on the real economy. Several months after it issued a debut sukuk and ahead of its 15-year anniversary, we spoke with Mahmood H Alkooheji, CEO of Mumtalakat, about the fund’s shifting investment and internationalisation strategy, and why the rising prevalence of privatisation in the GCC is a huge investment opportunity.
Market sentiment rallied last week on a lot of unsubstantiated claims by President Trump regarding China trade talks. At best, we know there is no further escalation (for now). At worst, the two sides remain far apart, and a deal is unlikely until 2020. That’s no reason to load up on EM. As long as current and planned tariffs are in effect, global growth risks will remain high and EM will continue to suffer.
In one of a series of exclusive market snapshots for Bonds & Loans, Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors and one of the most experienced and successful capital managers in the mining sector outlines the main risks to global economic stability, assesses the damage from US-China stand-off and describes Donald Trump as an “economic neocon.”
This year has seen yet another spate of debut sovereign issuances from across emerging markets (EM). Meanwhile, softening growth in China has tempered the GDP outlook across emerging markets. Bonds & Loans speaks with Kaan Nazli, Senior Economist and emerging markets sovereign debt Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman, about the EM outlook through 2019.
The US-China trade war is extending and expanding. There is no longer any semblance of a truce, and this is unequivocally negative for EM. CNY, INR, SGD, MXN, and BRL are making new cycle lows, and many other EM currencies are likely to follow suit.
Investors are suddenly much more concerned about the political transition in Argentina, but default is by no means a certainty, argues Ashmore's Gustavo Medeiros, and opportunities abound.
As major Central Banks look set for more monetary easing, yield-hungry investors are once again piling into some of the more exotic sovereign bonds - and supply is growing in response.
EM is likely to remain under pressure. Despite some signs of a slight thaw in US-China relations, a trade deal remains far off and so global growth and trade are likely to see continued downside risks.
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