After a slide on the lira in August 2018, followed by creeping inflation, Turkish corporates have had a rough year. One sector that has rode out the storm unscathed however, has been renewable energy developers. Bonds & Loans speaks with Hakan Aras, Chief Financial Officer for Borusan EnBW Enerji about ECA financing, Chinese investment and the company’s expansion plans.
The establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is both ambitious and impressive, not the least of which because it created a platform for 53 heads of state across a vast and diverse continent to agree on something. But whether or not it’s a game changer for intraregional trade – or the region’s financial markets – depends to a large extent on whether Africa’s leaders knuckle down and finally address far more practical barriers to growth and cross-border commerce.
For Asian investors searching for returns across emerging markets, the GCC has long been considered a relatively low-risk, higher-yielding option. But with geopolitical tensions reaching a boiling point, and a number of GCC states fiscally exposed to oil price swings, former safe havens could become a riskier bet.
It has not been an easy 12 months for Brazil’s corporate sector, which faces a multitude of challenges, both internal and external. Bolsonaro’s victory in the elections, though divisive, at least provided some reprieve from the political uncertainty that has weighed on Brazil’s markets in the run up to the vote. Still, many questions remain around the direction of policy, and the new government’s ability to push it through congress, as well as broader shifts in the macro-economic environment.
EM FX was mixed last week despite the dovish signals from the Fed’s Powell. Weak data from emerging Asia support the notion that the ongoing US-China trade war will continue to weigh on global growth and trade, which is negative for EM. We remain cautious on EM, especially given our less dovish take on the Fed.
A recent court ruling to reverse the National Bank of Ukraine’s decision to nationalise ailing lender PrivatBank sent the country’s banking system into disarray and even raised doubts over the country’s EU ascension prospects. The case, which some see as one of the first test-drives for the post-crisis era EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directives, is significant not just for the country’s economy and its new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, but also for the European banking industry more broadly.
Bonds & Loans spoke to Felipe Bomfim, Director at Patria Infrastructure, on pensions reform, festering growth of local capital markets and why the glass is always half-full for investors doing business in Brazil.
After enduring significant volatility in 2018, many Turkish corporates are struggling to keep their balance sheet in order and retain access to affordable financing. Some, however, like Turkcell – the country’s largest telecommunications operator – are bucking the trend. Bonds & Loans speaks with Osman Yilmaz, Chief Financial Officer of Turkcell about the company’s shift towards an asset-light business model, hedging strategies, and green borrowing.
10 Jul 2019
Donald Trump’s willingness to replace long-term global political planning in favour of short-term political opportunism marks a departure from 70-odd years of US foreign policy. In a nutshell, after a long line of US presidents worked hard to build global political capital and the Trump Administration has now decided to spend it. What does this mean for investors and policy makers in other countries, including EM?
EM FX remains vulnerable to ongoing global trade tensions. It may also suffer from the recalibration of market expectations regarding Fed policy. We remain negative on EM near-term until the outlook for both of these major drivers becomes clearer.
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12 Jul 2019